Sand2Pirls Market Signal

Please also understand that what is shown here is not a trading system nor an attempt to estimate full potential return one might expect from using the S2P Market Signal. Although trading ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds such as QQQQs) is an excellent way to begin trading, many security selection strategies would outperform the standardized comparison test shown here.

Click the chart to view it with higher resolution in its own window.

Methods

This comparison was made by buying Long or Short selling QQQQs, the NASDAQ 100 tracking ETF (Exchange Traded Fund), on the Long or Short entry dates for each of the seven (7) signals. No margin was used and commissions or slippage (bid/ask spread) was not considered. Percentage equity changes were added, not multiplied or compounded.

Sand2Pirls signal changes are always on weekends. Other signals may change any day of the week. Sand2Pirls offers a three phase signal, but it is the two phase signal that is shown here since it offers a higher Rate of Return. With "Out" or "Cash" periods, HI Qs Signal is the only three phase signal in this comparison.

Links to Signal Data Compared Here

FundSpectrum TimingCube StockMarketPivots HighlightInvestmentsQs Intelli-Timer

Results and Conclusion

Note that there are significant differences between these signals. The HI Qs signal is often too fast for use with stocks. The Intelli-Timer and SM Pivots signals are the best performing, but have periods as short as 1 day which makes their use for stock strategies uncertain. Also remember that the faster the signal, the greater would be the losses due to slippage and commissions. The VV Cup/Cdn signal has long losing periods, high draw down and appears to be non-competitive with the other signals. Roberts Dragon (RD) is uses VectorVest proprietary data, and appears to give better results than the official Vector Vest timing signal.

Of the signals sufficiently long for use with stock strategies, the Sand2Pirls signal has the least negative Maximum Draw-Down, even slightly lower than the faster SM Pivots signal.

You will notice that some signals show continued upward ROR when the QQQQ price changes direction suddenly. Such signals are likely "curve fit" at this point giving them a suspect "boost" over other more honest signals.

The Sand2Pirls market signal provides an excellent compromise between safety and profitability.

Definitions and Presentation

The scale on the right side of the graph shows the equity return for each signal as Rate of Return (ROR) percent beginning 12/31/01.

The table insert shows additional data for each signal including the number of signals given, the shortest signal period, the Maximum draw-down (Max DD), and the Annualized ROR. Maximum Draw-Down as used here is the maximum decrease of ROR from high to low moving forward in time within any one signal period.

In addition to the graphical presentation above, we have provided a way to view a summary of the comparison data in tabular format.