Sand 2 Pirls Market Commentary a weekly technical stock market overview featuring our custom Bull/Bear P&F ratio

September 29, 2007

9-28-07 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 8:52 am

Subscriber email sent 9-29-07:
Our unique market breadth indicator now has nearly 1300 securities in either Bullish or Bearish patterns, an increase of over 5% from last week. With the market rising for the week, bullish patterns increased by nearly 4% while Bearish patterns increased by nearly 7%. The Bullish/Bearish Point & Figure ratio is now 1.25, virtually unchanged from 1.28 the previous week. Bulls are retaining control. A graphical presentation of this week’s Bull/Bear P&F indicator can be viewed at http://www.s2pmarketsignal.com/Bull-Bear_PnF.pdf. The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index rose for the third week in a row and at -317 is now at about the level it reached near the end of August of 2006 as the market continued its rebound at that time.

The Nasdaq Composite Index has a count of three (3) accumulation days and one (1) distribution days in the last two weeks. However, it is currently in distribution mode. A week ago it was also neither accumulation nor distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while Distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) We also note that of the other indexes, all are currently in distribution mode.

On last week’s Nasdaq Composite CCI(20) Daily chart we see that the Long signal given at close Tues (9/11) continues above the CCI(20) trend line. We will continue to follow this trade signal in next week’s commentary.
Likewise, looking at last week’s Nasdaq Composite CCI(20) Weekly pattern following our Long Entry point from Monday 8/27, we see the CCI(20) continued strongly upwards again last week. Now that we are above CCI(20) 100, an exit signal is a possibility in the weeks to come. We will continue to follow the results of this signal in our commentary in the following weeks. For more info on Woodie’s CCI patterns, click here.
Concerning industry index performance over the last two weeks, we see that S&P Chemicals ($CEX) gains have risen above Gold & Silver ($XAU), followed by Computer Hardware ($HWI)and Commodity Related Equities ($CRX), and Oil Services ($OSX). The rebound by Computer Hardware we mentioned had begun last week is a significant bullish development. Several key technology indices, that were in the most negative list last week no longer are. Most negatives currently include Airlines ($XAL) and S&P Retail ($RLX). Other lagging indexes including Banks ($BKX) are actually in positive territory.
As we mentioned last week, the breadth of the current economic upswing is clearly seen by the fact that Consumer Discretionary Spending ($BPIDISC) continues to lead the equity Bullish Percent Index (BPI) over the last two weeks followed by infrastructure groups. Technology ($BPINFO) is no longer in the bottom 5, indicating that the technology advance that was required to sustain the current bullish in the short term move has in fact occurred.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged. © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

September 22, 2007

9-21-07 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 8:56 am

Subscriber email sent 9-22-07:
Our unique market breadth indicator now has over 1200 securities in either Bullish or Bearish patterns, an increase of over 15% from last week. With the market rising for the week, bullish patterns increased by nearly 70% while Bearish patterns increased by almost 18%. The Bullish/Bearish Point & Figure ratio is now 1.28 compared to 0.62 the previous week. Bulls are now clearly back control. A graphical presentation of this week’s Bull/Bear P&F indicator can be viewed at http://www.s2pmarketsignal.com/Bull-Bear_PnF.pdf. The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index rose for the third week in a row and at -409 is now at about the level it reached in mid August of 2006 as the market continued its rebound at that time.

With a count of two (2) accumulation days and two (2) distribution days in the last two weeks, the Nasdaq Composite Index continues in neither accumulation nor distribution mode. A week ago it was also neither accumulation nor distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while Distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) We also note that of the other indexes, all are currently neither in accumulation nor distribution mode.

On last week’s Nasdaq Composite CCI(20) Daily chart, we see that Monday’s close (9/17) broke through the trend line (TL) we mentioned last week as a possible exit point. Its a judgment call, but 1) the rounded, less definitive shape of the CCI(20) at this point, 2) the fact that the the index remained above its 34 EMA (exponential moving average) as shown to the left, and 3) the possibility of a new ZLR Long Entry point the following day all favor not exiting the trade. In fact, we did see the CCI(20) rising sharply the following day with the Fed rate cut announcement. We will continue to follow this trade signal in next week’s commentary.
Looking at last week’s Nasdaq Composite CCI(20) Weekly pattern following our Long Entry point from Monday 8/27, we see the CCI(20) rose sharply last week. An exit signal above CCI(20) 100 is a possibility in the weeks to come. We will continue to follow the results of this signal in our commentary in the following weeks. For more info on Woodie’s CCI patterns, click here.
Concerning industry index performance over the last two weeks, we see that Gold & Silver ($XAU) has continued its strong rebound and is continuing to lead gainers for the third week in a row. It is now followed by Commodity Related Equities ($CRX), Oil Services ($OSX), S&P Chemicals ($CEX), and Oil ($XOI). We notice that several key technology indices, Network Equities ($NWX), Disk Drives ($DDX), and Semis ($SOX), are in the most negative list. However, Computer Hardware ($HWI) has begun to rebound. If the current uptrend continues, we expect the other technology indices will as well. If not, the trend is less likely to continue.
The breadth of the current economic upswing is clearly seen by the fact that Consumer Discretionary Spending ($BPIDISC) leads the equity Bullish Percent Index (BPI) over the last two weeks followed by infrastructure and finance groups. However, in line with what we have noted above, Technology ($BPINFO) in the bottom 5 is mildly bearish, and if this doesn’t change in the next few weeks, the current up trend is less likely to be sustained.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged. © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

September 15, 2007

9-14-07 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 8:43 am

Subscriber email sent 9-15-07:
Our unique market breadth indicator now has over 1050 securities in either Bullish or Bearish patterns, an increase of over 10% from last week. With the market rising for the week, bullish patterns increased by over 22% while Bearish patterns increased by almost 4%. The Bullish/Bearish Point & Figure ratio is now 0.62 compared to 0.53 the previous week. Bulls do seem to be gaining back control, yet still have a way to go before it is clear that Bulls are back in control of market breadth. A graphical presentation of this week’s Bull/Bear P&F indicator can be viewed at http://www.s2pmarketsignal.com/Bull-Bear_PnF.pdf. The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index rose for the third week in a row and at -539 is now at about the level it reached in August of 2006 as the market began its rebound.

With a count of two (2) accumulation days and three (3) distribution days in the last two weeks, the Nasdaq Composite Index is currently in neither accumulation nor distribution mode. A week ago it was in distribution mode . (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while Distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) We also note that of the other indexes, the Nasdaq 100 and Dow (as indicated by DIA) are in accumulation mode while the S&P 500 like the Nasdaq Composite is neither in accumulation nor distribution mode.

On last week’s Nasdaq Composite CCI(20) Daily chart we see that Tuesday’s close gave us the ZLR Long Entry point that we mentioned last week might occur. Note that we are now at a trend line on the chart and if we break through to the downside, we will exit the trade.
Looking at last week’s Nasdaq Composite CCI(20) Weekly pattern following our Long Entry point from Monday 8/27, we see that last week the CCI(20) went sideways at the zero line, but thsi is not yet an exit signal. We will continue to follow the results of this signal in our commentary in the following weeks. For more info on Woodie’s CCI patterns, click here.
Concerning industry index performance over the last two weeks, we find that Gold & Silver ($XAU) has continued its strong rebound and is leading gainers for the second week in a row. It is now followed by Natural Gas ($XNG) and Biotech ($BTK). We notice that Disk Drives ($DDX), Semis ($SOX), and Computer Hardware ($HWI) are in the most negative list which is bearish, especially when combined with rising Gold, a traditional bearish hedge.
This mildly bearish picture is mirrored in a review of the equity Bullish Percent Index (BPI) over the last two weeks where we find the bullish strength in Energy (BPI +38%), has decreased from last week, and Materials (BPI -2.3%) which was positive last week, is now in the most negative list.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged. © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

September 8, 2007

9-7-07 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 7:55 am

Subscriber email sent 9-8-07:
Our unique market breadth indicator continues virtually unchanged from last week with over 950 securities in either Bullish or Bearish patterns. In spite of a down week for the market, bullish patterns increased by 1.5% while Bearish patterns decreased by less than 1%. The Bullish/Bearish Point & Figure ratio was virtually unchanged last week at 0.53 compared to 0.52 the previous week. We are looking for further decrease in bearish count and increase in bullish count before it is clear that Bulls are back in control of market breadth. A graphical presentation of this week’s Bull/Bear P&F indicator can be viewed at http://www.s2pmarketsignal.com/Bull-Bear_PnF.pdf. The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index rose for the third week in a row and at -593 is now above the level reached in June and July of 2006.

With a count of four (4) accumulation days and three (3) distribution day in the last two weeks, the Nasdaq Composite Index is currently in distribution mode. A week ago it was neither in accumulation nor distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while Distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) We also note that all of the other major indexes are also currently in distribution mode.

On last week’s Nasdaq Composite CCI(20) Daily chart we find we now have a Long trend by Woodie’s trend definition since we have had six (6) consecutive days with the CCI(20) above the zero line. We now await a Long entry point on the CCI(20) daily chart.
Looking at last week’s Nasdaq Composite CCI(20) Weekly pattern we see that again the CCI has continued upwards from the ZLR Long entry two weeks ago. We will continue to follow the results of this signal in our commentary in the following weeks. For more info on Woodie’s CCI patterns, click here.
Concerning industry index performance over the last two weeks, we find that Gold & Silver ($XAU) has continued its strong rebound and is now leading gainers followed by Oil Services ($OSX). We do not see particular strength this week in technology industries, which is bearish, since bullish oil tends to act as an economic drain on commerce while bullish technology fuels growth. We note that Banks ($BKX) are now the most negative over the last two weeks, with their recent gains appearing to have peaked yet currently not having a strongly positive impact on other sectors.
However, reviewing Bullish Percent Index (BPI) increases over the last two weeks we find continued notable bullish strength in infrastructure equities including Energy (BPI +71%), Industrials (BPI +42%), and Materials (BPI +35%), an indication that infrastructure industries are continuing to benefit from recent stabilization of the banking industry.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged. © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

September 1, 2007

8-31-07 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 7:27 am

Subscriber email sent 9-1-07:
Our unique market breadth indicator now has over 950 securities in either Bullish or Bearish patterns. This is an increase of 3% from last week, and for the first time in four weeks running, we have a higher total count. Bullish patterns increased by 10% while Bearish patterns decreased by less than 1%. The Bullish/Bearish Point & Figure ratio increased slightly again last week to 0.52 from 0.47 the previous week. We are looking for further decrease in bearish count and increase in bullish count before it is clear that Bulls are back in control of market breadth. A graphical presentation of this week’s Bull/Bear P&F indicator can be viewed at http://www.s2pmarketsignal.com/Bull-Bear_PnF.pdf. The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index rose for the second week in a row and at -728 is now above the level reached in July of 2006.

With a count of five (5) accumulation days and one (1) distribution day in the last two weeks, the Nasdaq Composite Index is currently neither in accumulation nor distribution mode. A week ago it was in accumulation mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while Distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) We also note that of the major indexes, only the S&P 500 is currently in accumulation mode. The other indexes are currently neither in accumulation nor distribution mode.

On last week’s Nasdaq Composite CCI(20) Daily chart we find we do not yet have a Long trend by Woodie’s trend definition since there have not yet been six (6) consecutive days with the CCI(20) above the zero line. Therefore there is still no Long entry point on the CCI(20) daily chart. We currently have three days with the CCI above the zero line zero.
Looking at last week’s Nasdaq Composite CCI(20) Weekly pattern we see that the CCI has continued upwards from the last week’s ZLR Long entry. Note that because we had less than six (6) weeks with the CCI(20) weekly below zero (0), the Weekly Long Trend as defined by Woodie’s CCI did not end as did the CCI Daily Long Trend. We will continue to follow the results of this signal in our commentary in the following weeks. For more info on Woodie’s CCI patterns, click here.
Concerning industry index performance over the last two weeks, we find that Oil Services ($OSX), Computer Hardware ($HWI), Airlines ($XAL), S&P Retail ($RLX), and Gold & Silver ($XAU) are significantly up, the latter having a recent rebound. Since bullish oil tends to act as an economic drain on commerce while bullish technology fuels growth, in the weeks to come we will be watching to see whether oil and technology continue to share the lead or whether the strength of one industry overcomes the other. We note that Banks ($BKX) are now negative over the last two weeks, with their very strong recent gains appearing to have peaked and increased stability now having a positive impact on other sectors.
Consistent with the picture shown by industry index performance, we find that the strongest two week increases in equity Bullish Percent Indexes are in Industrials, Materials, and Energy, an indication that infrastructure industries are now benefiting from recent stabilization of the banking industry.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged. © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

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