Sand 2 Pirls Market Commentary a weekly technical stock market overview featuring our custom Bull/Bear P&F ratio

October 20, 2007

10-19-07 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 9:01 am

Subscriber email sent 10-20-07:
Our unique market breadth indicator now has under 1350 securities in either Bullish or Bearish patterns, an decrease of over 7% from last week. With the market down for the week, bullish patterns decreased by 31% while Bearish patterns increased by over 37%. The Bullish/Bearish Point & Figure ratio is now 0.96, down from 1.91 the previous week. Bears were in control this week. A graphical presentation of this week’s Bull/Bear P&F indicator can be viewed at http://www.s2pmarketsignal.com/Bull-Bear_PnF.pdf. The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) decreased for the first time in nine weeks, yet at -94 is above the level it reached in March of 2007 as the market began its rebound at that time.

The Nasdaq Composite Index has a count of four (4) accumulation days and three (3) distribution days in the last two weeks and is currently in distribution mode. A week ago it was neither in accumulation nor distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while Distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) We also note that of the other indexes, all are currently in distribution mode.

On last week’s Nasdaq Composite CCI(20) Daily chart, we see that the Long signal given at close Tues (9/11) ended when the the CCI(20) crossed below 100. The gain from this trade was 177.2 on the Nasdaq Composite (not directly tradable) or $3.95 per share of QQQQ.
Likewise, looking at last week’s Nasdaq Composite CCI(20) Weekly pattern, this week gave us an HFE (hook from extremes) exit point from our Long Entry on Monday 8/27. Since this is a weekly signal, the exit is at Monday’s open and we will report its profit in next week’s commentary. Click here for more info on Woodie’s CCI patterns.
Concerning industry index performance over the last two weeks, we see that Gold & Silver (XAU) traditionally a bearish hedge, leads followed by Natural Gas (XNG) and Oil (XOI). With all the news about the high price of Oil, many might be surprised to note that over the last two weeks, its gains are less than 1% above those of Computer Hardware (HWI) which follows immediately behind it in the top five list of bullish indexes. We take this to indicate resilient strength in the current market. In addition, Semis (SOX) are no longer in the most negative list. Not surprisingly Banks (BKX), S&P Retail (RLX), and REITs (DJR) lead the most negative list, and losers show more downside strength than gaining indexes show upside strength this week. We expect that we might soon have another liquidity injection to aid the ailing Banks and REITs. If not, the recent market decline could accelerate.
Looking at Bullish Percent Equity Indexes over the last two weeks, we see that with the market decline this past week, Consumer Discretionary Spending (BPDISC) is no longer in the top five. Utilities (BPUTIL) and Technology (BPINFO) are strong and Telecom (BPTELE), formerly in the most negative is now a leader. Financials are notably weak and echo our concerns above and highlight the possibility of further liquidity injections to prevent acceleration of recent declines in the market.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged. © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

October 13, 2007

10-12-07 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 7:30 am

Subscriber email sent 10-13-07:
Our unique market breadth indicator now has over 1450 securities in either Bullish or Bearish patterns, an increase of nearly 3% from last week. With the market rising for the week, bullish patterns increased by nearly 5% while Bearish patterns decreased by less than 1%. The Bullish/Bearish Point & Figure ratio is now 1.91, up from 1.81 the previous week. Bulls are retaining control. A graphical presentation of this week’s Bull/Bear P&F indicator can be viewed at http://www.s2pmarketsignal.com/Bull-Bear_PnF.pdf. The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) rose for the eighth week in a row and at -3 is now at about the level it reached in January of 2007 as the market began its rebound at that time.

The Nasdaq Composite Index has a count of four (4) accumulation days and two (2) distribution days in the last two weeks and is currently neither in accumulation nor distribution mode. A week ago it was in accumulation mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while Distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) We also note that of the other indexes, all are currently in distribution mode.

On last week’s Nasdaq Composite CCI(20) Daily chart, we see that the Long signal given at close Tues (9/11) continues above the CCI(20) trend line. Our exit is planned for the CCI(20) crossing below CCI(20) 100. We will continue to follow this trade signal in next week’s commentary.
Likewise, looking at last week’s Nasdaq Composite CCI(20) Weekly pattern, following our Long Entry point from Monday 8/27, we see the CCI(20) continued strongly upwards again last week. With the CCI(20) now over 200, an HFE exit signal is likely next week or shortly thereafter. We will continue to follow the results of this signal in our commentary in the following weeks. Click here for more info on Woodie’s CCI patterns.
Concerning industry index performance over the last two weeks, we see that Internet (IIX), consistently strong since August, is leading followed by Airlines (XAL), formerly in the most negative group are now leading followed by Natural Gas (XNG), Internet (DOT). Gold & Silver ($XAU) has bounced back to the leaders list. Currently the most negative index, Semis (SOX) has been bouncing up and down since August. Often this index leads the Nasdaq and the market in general, so will be watching to see if it goes below its los in August. Oil (XOI) is no longer in the most negative list but Disk Drives (DDX) and Banks (BKX) continue to be slightly negative. The rebound by Airlines and Internets is a significant bullish development, as is the fact that Oil is no longer leading. Our expectation is that in order for Bulls to remain in control, Semis and Disk Drives will need to regain some of their strength.
Consumer Discretionary Spending (BPDISC) continues strong and has moved back into first place in the equity Bullish Percent Index (BPI) over the last two weeks. The Materials index (BPMATE), Consumer Staples (BPSTAP), and Technology (BPINFO) are all showing strength. The only significantly negative group is Telecom (BPTELE), yet it remains above its August low.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged. © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

October 6, 2007

10-5-07 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 11:18 am

Subscriber email sent 10-6-07:
Our unique market breadth indicator now has nearly 1400 securities in either Bullish or Bearish patterns, an increase of over 10% from last week. With the market rising for the week, bullish patterns increased by nearly 28% while Bearish patterns decreased by nearly 12%. The Bullish/Bearish Point & Figure ratio is now 1.81, up sharply from 1.25 the previous week. Bulls are clearly in control. A graphical presentation of this week’s Bull/Bear P&F indicator can be viewed at http://www.s2pmarketsignal.com/Bull-Bear_PnF.pdf. The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index rose for the third week in a row and at -134 is now at about the level it reached at the end of August of 2006 as the market continued its rebound at that time.

The Nasdaq Composite Index has a count of three (3) accumulation days and two (2) distribution days in the last two weeks and is currently in accumulation mode. A week ago it was in distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while Distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) We also note that of the other indexes, all are currently in accumulation mode.

On last week’s Nasdaq Composite CCI(20) Daily chart, we see that the Long signal given at close Tues (9/11) continues above the CCI(20) trend line. Now that the trend line is above CCI(20) 100, our exit is planned for the CCI(20) crossing below CCI(20) 100. We will continue to follow this trade signal in next week’s commentary.
Likewise, looking at last week’s Nasdaq Composite CCI(20) Weekly pattern following our Long Entry point from Monday 8/27, we see the CCI(20) continued strongly upwards again last week. With the CCI(20) 100, an exit signal is a possibility in the weeks to come. We will continue to follow the results of this signal in our commentary in the following weeks. For more info on Woodie’s CCI patterns, see http://www.s2pmarketsignal.com/files/woodie_CCI_v1.2.pdf.
Concerning industry index performance over the last two weeks, we see that Airlines ($XAL) formerly in the most negative group are now leading followed by Brokers ($XBD), Networks ($NWX), and Internet indexes $IIX and $DOT. Gold & Silver ($XAU) formerly a leader although still positive, is now in the most negative list just behind Oil ($XOI), and followed by Oil Services ($OSX), Semis ($SOX), and Disk Drives ($DDX). The rebound by Airlines and Internets is a significant bullish development, as is the fact that Oil is no longer leading. Note that Semis and Disk Drives although no longer leading, are still positive.
Consumer Discretionary Spending ($BPDISC) continues strong have moved from first to third place in the equity Bullish Percent Index (BPI) over the last two weeks. The Materials index ($BPMATE) leads and Finance ($BPFINA) has recovered to take the fifth leadership position. Energy ($BPENER) is the only negative group, with its recent decline due to Oil industry equities losing their leadership role — actually a bullish development.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged. © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

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