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Subscriber email sent 12-22-07:
The Nasdaq Composite Index has a count of four (4) accumulation days and one (1) distribution days in the last two weeks and is currently in accumulation mode. A week ago it was neither accumulation nor distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) We also note that all the other indexes are currently neither accumulation nor distribution mode.
–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ] |
December 29, 2007
December 22, 2007
12-21-07 Market Commentary
December 15, 2007
12-14-07 Market Commentary
Subscriber email sent 12-15-07:
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| Bears rebounded this week, and our current Bull/Bear P&F Ratio (0.41) indicates that this is still a bear market. The total count of securities in either bullish or bearish patterns is now below 1400, about 3% lower than last week’s total count. Bullish patterns decreased by 24% while Bearish patterns increased by 9%. At 0.41, The Bullish/Bearish Point & Figure ratio is down from 0.59 recorded the previous week. A graphical presentation of this week’s Bull/Bear P&F indicator can be viewed at http://www.s2pmarketsignal.com/Bull-Bear_PnF.pdf. The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the second week in a row and the second time in nine weeks. At -698, it is now above its recent low of -882 and may have begun its climb in a manner similar to the bottoms reached in previous bear runs ending in August 2007, July 2006, October 2005, and April 2005. |
The Nasdaq Composite Index has a count of two (2) accumulation days and three (3) distribution days in the last two weeks and is currently neither accumulation nor distribution mode. A week ago it was neither accumulation nor distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) We also note that of the other indexes, all are currently neither accumulation nor distribution mode.
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We have been looking for a daily Woodie’s CCI(20) trade signal to form within the Short Trend as defined by Woodie’s CCI system. Reviewing last week’s Nasdaq Composite CCI(20) Daily chart, we see that our Woodie’s CCI(20) daily trend definition has now changed from Short to Long since last Thursday (12/13) we had our sixth consecutive day with CCI(20) above zero. We are now waiting for a ZLR (Zero Line Reject) or other Long entry pattern to form. |
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Following the Nasdaq Composite CCI(20) Weekly pattern, we took the CCI(20) ZLR (Zero Line Reject) Long entry signal to enter at Monday 12/3 open with the Nasdaq Composite at 2,654.91 and QQQQ at 51.14 per share. Although the CCI(20) weekly decreased last week, we stay in the trade since the CCI(20) has not dropped below the ZLR point. The Nasdaq Composite is down 19.17 points from our entry and QQQQs are down 0.14 per share. We will follow the progress of this real time trade simulation in the weeks to come. |
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Concerning industry index performance over the last two weeks, we see that Disk Drives (DDX) have been joined in the top five by Computer Technology (XCI). However as a result of the Fed rate cut of a quarter point when the market was expecting more, Brokers (XBD) and REITs (DJR) have moved from the top to the bottom five industries joined there by Banks (BKX). So although technology industries may have begun to turn a bullish corner, strength in Financials is needed to fuel them. However, with the bearish hedge of Gold & Silver (XAU) remaining in the bottom five, it appears at this point that bears have not re-gained their previous momentum. |
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In reviewing the Bullish Percent (BP) Equity Indexes over the last two weeks, we see that Financials (BPFINA) which last week lead the indexes and hopes for the bulls to regain lost ground, are now leading the bearish ones. Furthermore, Technology (BPINFO) remains in the bottom five and has now become negative. Clearly, as we stated above, Financials must recover before bulls can regain control. |
–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com
S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.
© 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]
December 8, 2007
12-7-07 Market Commentary
Subscriber email sent 12-8-07:
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| Bulls made more progress this week, but our current Bull/Bear P&F Ratio (0.59) indicates that this is still a bear market. The total count of securities in either bullish or bearish patterns remains below 1450, and is virtually unchanged from from last weeks total count. Bullish patterns increased by 29% while Bearish patterns decreased by 12%. The Bullish/Bearish Point & Figure ratio is now 0.59, up from 0.40 the previous week. A graphical presentation of this week’s Bull/Bear P&F indicator can be viewed at http://www.s2pmarketsignal.com/Bull-Bear_PnF.pdf. The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the first time in seven weeks. At -754, it is now above its recent low of -882 and may have begun its climb in a manner similar to the bottoms reached in previous bear runs ending in August 2007, July 2006, October 2005, and April 2005. |
The Nasdaq Composite Index has a count of three (3) accumulation days and three (3) distribution days in the last two weeks and is currently neither accumulation nor distribution mode. A week ago it was in distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) We also note that of the other indexes, all are currently neither accumulation nor distribution mode.
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We have been looking for a daily Woodie’s CCI(20) trade signal to form within the Short Trend as defined by Woodie’s CCI system. Reviewing last week’s Nasdaq Composite CCI(20) Daily chart, we see that a ZLR (Zero Line Reject) pattern has not yet formed, and we are now looking at the possibility that our Woodie’s CCI(20) daily trend definition may change from Short to Long once we have six consecutive days with CCI(20) above zero. Currently we have 3 days. |
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Following the Nasdaq Composite CCI(20) Weekly pattern, we took the CCI(20) ZLR (Zero Line Reject) Long entry signal to enter at Monday 12/3 open with the Nasdaq Composite at 2,654.91 and QQQQ at 51.14 per share. We will follow the progress of this real time trade simulation in the weeks to come. |
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Concerning industry index performance over the last two weeks, we see we have follow through on the leadership change we mentioned last week. Chemicals (CEX), and Brokers (BKX) have been joined in the top five by Disk Drives (DDX) and REITs (DJR). We mentioned last week that we needed to see a technology turn the corner, and this week it appears to have begun to do so. With the strongest laggard being the bearish hedge of precious metals, the bulls are making headway. |
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In reviewing the Bullish Percent (BP) Equity Indexes over the last two weeks, we find a slightly different picture from that in the industry indexes. We see that technology, although positive, is still the second strongest laggard. However, continued leadership by Financials (BPFINA) may be brining about the return to a bullish market — the possible scenario we have been mentioning in previous weeks. |
–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com
S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.
© 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]
December 1, 2007
11-30-07 Market Commentary
Subscriber email sent 12-1-07:
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| In spite of market gains this week, our current Bull/Bear P&F Ratio (0.40) indicates that this is still a bear market. The total count of securities in either bullish or bearish patterns is now below 1450, a decrease of more than 10% from last weeks total count. Bullish patterns increased by 40% while Bearish patterns decreased by 22%. The Bullish/Bearish Point & Figure ratio is now 0.40, up from 0.22 the previous week. A graphical presentation of this week’s Bull/Bear P&F indicator can be viewed at http://www.s2pmarketsignal.com/Bull-Bear_PnF.pdf. The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) decreased for the sixth week in a row, and at -840, it is nearing the bottoms it reached in previous bear runs ending in August 2007 and April 2005, and is now below both the July 2006 and the October 2005 bottom. |
The Nasdaq Composite Index has a count of four (4) accumulation days and two (2) distribution days in the last two weeks and is currently in distribution mode. A week ago it was neither accumulation nor distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) We also note that of the other indexes, both the Dow and S&P are in accumulation mode.
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We continue to wait for a daily Woodie’s CCI(20) trade signal to form. (A weekly pattern has now formed as explained below.) Reviewing last week’s Nasdaq Composite CCI(20) Daily chart, we have passed 6 bars with the CCI(20) below the zero line and are in a Short trend by Woodie’s trend definition, the CCI(20) is now above minus 50, and a ZLR (Zer Line Reject) pattern could form if the market declines significantly next week. |
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Looking at last week’s Nasdaq Composite CCI(20) Weekly pattern, the CCI(20) has formed a ZLR (Zero Line Reject) Long entry pattern. We will follow the progress of this trade signal in the weeks to come. |
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Concerning industry index performance over the last two weeks, we see leadership has changed completely. The bearish leadership of Oil Services (OSX), Natural Gas (XNG), and Gold and Silver (XAU) has been replaced by Chemicals (CEX), Banks (BKX), Retail (RLX), and Brokers (BKX). Black Friday and a hint of further mortgage declines by the Fed may have turned the market around. However, it does not yet appear that technology, a common indicator of bullish strength has turned the corner. Semis (SOX), Disk Drives (DDX), Networkers (NWX), and Computer Hardware (HWI) are all in the bottom five. |
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The Bullish Percent (BP) Equity Indexes over the last two weeks, shows a similar picture to the industry indexes. Financials (BPFINA) are clearly showing strength by leading gainers, but technology (BPINFO) leads the laggards and does not appear yet to have reversed. To return to a bull market, our expectation is that Financials will need to continue to show strength and allow the appearance of new leadership in technology and the broader market . |
–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com
S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.
© 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]
12-28-07 Commentary
Subscriber email sent 12-29-07:
The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the third time in four weeks. At -624, it is now above its recent low of -882 and may be forming a “double bottom” pattern similar to that of July 2006 before the market began its four month rise at that time.
–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com
S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.