Sand 2 Pirls Market Commentary a weekly technical stock market overview featuring our custom Bull/Bear P&F ratio

November 29, 2008

11-28-08 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 2:05 pm
Subscriber email sent 11-29-08:

Market Breadth: Our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio increased sharply this week, from 0.07 to 0.36, higher than it has been for three weeks. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns decreased by 49% to 1494. The count of Bearish stocks decreased by 60%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns increased by 101%, more than doubling. There are now fewer than 3 stocks in bearish P&F patterns for every one in a bullish pattern. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart continues to show us a very bearish market that is repeatedly attempting to recover. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the second time in thirteen weeks with a rise of 118 points. At -1551, it is above an intermediate bottom four weeks ago, yet remains below the October 2005 low, the July 2006 low, and the August 2007 July 2008 low points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index has a count of two (2) accumulation days and two (2) distribution days in the last two weeks and is currently in neither nor distribution mode.  The last four weeks it also ended in neither accumulation nor distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, this week both the S&P (SPI) and the DOW (DIA) ended in neither accumulation nor distribution mode.
Momentum: Since the CCI(20) Daily down-trend began Monday 9/8, we have not had a Zero Line Reject (ZLR) that presented a CCI(20) within the +/-50 range, and we do not take ZLR trades outside the range, since the risk to reward ratio is lower. This past week, the CCI(20) moved upwards, and is now in the +/-50 range where a ZLR short signal is possible.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a down trend sixteen weeks ago, while the Daily CCI(20) began an down trend twelve weeks ago.
The ZLR Short entry from Friday 8/22 close continued another week with the Weekly CCI(20) continuing downwards and still just barely below -100, so we are still in the trade. We will continue to follow the results of this trade simulation in next week’s commentary.  An exit next week looks likely.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All top 5 industries are now positive over the last two weeks while all bottom 5 industries are negative. Bearish: Gold & Silver (XAU) leads the top five. Internets (DOT) have left the top five. and REITs (DJR) continue in the bottom five.    Bullish: Oil (XOI) has left the top five. Brokers (XBD) has left the bottom five and entered the top five. S&P Retail (RLX) has entered the top five.
Focus This Week: Do we have an upturn? One indication would be the S&P Consumer Discretionary Spending index. Numbers are low, but above the three most recent lows and now at the level of the fourth lowest this year. If the index moves up to 21.0, we will have another bullish P&F signal putting he index back in the range experienced in 2001 & 2002.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

November 23, 2008

11-21-08 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 5:11 pm
Subscriber email sent 11-23-08:

Market Breadth: Our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio decreased again this week, down from last week’s 0.14 to 0.07, equal to the lowest value on our record reached two other times in the last two months. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns increased by 86% to 2966, indicating a sell-off of normally low volume securities. The count of Bearish stocks increased by 98%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns increased by 2%. There are now over 14 stocks in bearish P&F patterns for every one in a bullish pattern. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart continues to show us a very bearish market that appears unable to recover. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) decreased for the tenth time in eleven weeks with a fall of 226 points. At -1669, it is just above an intermediate bottom three weeks ago, and reamins below the October 2005 low, the July 2006 low, and the August 2007 July 2008 low points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index has a count of two (2) accumulation days and three (3) distribution days in the last two weeks (identical to last week) and is currently in neither nor distribution mode.  The last three weeks it also ended in neither accumulation nor distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, this week both the S&P (SPI) and the DOW (DIA) ended in accumulation mode.
Momentum: Since the CCI(20) Daily down-trend began Monday 9/8, we have not had a Zero Line Reject (ZLR) that presented a CCI(20) within the +/-50 range, and we do not take ZLR trades outside the range, since the risk to reward ratio is lower. This past week, the CCI(20) moved upwards, but is still below -100 and without a ZLR signal. We are  below the range where a ZLR Short entry signal is possible.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a down trend fifteen weeks ago, while the Daily CCI(20) began an down trend eleven weeks ago.
The ZLR Short entry from Friday 8/22 close continued another week with the Weekly CCI(20) continuing downwards and still below -100, so we are still in the trade. We will continue to follow the results of this trade simulation in next week’s commentary.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All industries except utilities are now negative over the last two weeks. Bearish: Banks (BKX) are back in the top five and leading it. Gold & Silver (XAU) is second in the top five. Oil (XOI) continues in the top five. Brokers (XBD) and REITs (DJR) continue in the bottom five.    Bullish: Internets (DOT) are back in the top five. Disk Drives (DDX) have left the bottom five.
Focus This Week: We have been watching precious metals and looking at a 2% 3 box reversal Point & Figure chart note that this week Gold has had a triple top breakout. Our expectation is that Gold will continue to move upwards in this bear market.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

November 15, 2008

11-14-08 Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 5:52 pm
Subscriber email sent 11-14-08:

Market Breadth: Our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio decreased again this week, down from last week’s 0.26 to 0.14, very strongly bearish, close to four very low values in the last two months. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns increased by 30% to 1595. The count of Bearish stocks increased by 44%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns decreased by 24%. There are now over 7 stocks in bearish P&F patterns for every one in a bullish pattern. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a very bearish market that appears unable to recover. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) decreased for the tenth time in eleven weeks with a fall of 38 points. At -1443, it remains above an intermediate bottom two weeks ago, but is still below the October 2005 low, the July 2006 low, and the August 2007 July 2008 low points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index has a count of two (2) accumulation days and three (3) distribution days in the last two weeks and is currently in neither nor distribution mode.  The last two weeks it also ended in neither accumulation nor distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, this week both the S&P (SPI) and the DOW (DIA) ended in neither accumulation nor distribution mode.
Momentum: Since the CCI(20) Daily down-trend began Monday 9/8, we have not had a Zero Line Reject (ZLR) that presented a CCI(20) within the +/-50 range, and we do not take ZLR trades outside the range, since the risk to reward ratio is lower. This past week, the CCI(20) continued to drop to below -100, but without a ZLR signal. We are now below the range where a ZLR Short entry signal is possible.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a down trend fourteen weeks ago, while the Daily CCI(20) began an down trend ten weeks ago.
The ZLR Short entry from Friday 8/22 close continued another week with the Weekly CCI(20) turning back downwards and still below -100, so we are still in the trade. We will continue to follow the results of this trade simulation in next week’s commentary.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All industries are now negative over the last two weeks. Bearish: Gold & Silver (XAU) remains the leader of the top five. Oil (XOI) continues in the top five. Disk Drives (DDX), Brokers (XBD), and REITs (DJR) are back in the bottom five.  Bullish: Banks (BKX) have left the bottom five.
Focus This Week: Just about everything has been driven down in this extreme Bear market, including somewhat surprisingly, precious metals. But are they about to head back up? One possible signal is the behavior of mining stocks. Looking at a 2% 3 box reversal Point & Figure chart with volume of the S&P Global Mining Index, we see the expected high volume in April (4) just below the top in May (5). Typically lower volume “smart money” is found buying is at lower but noticeable volumes after a bottom has been made. Is that what is happening now? We had a Low Pole Reversal bullish breakout signal yesterday, 11-14-08. Volume is still low, and we are noticing both higher lows and increasing volume.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

November 8, 2008

11-7-08 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 11:07 am
Subscriber email sent 11-8-08:

Market Breadth: Our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio decreased this week, down from last week’s 0.46 to 0.26, strongly bearish, but higher than four values in the last two months. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns decreased by 22% to 1227. The count of Bearish stocks decreased by 10%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns decreased by 48%, almost half. There are now nearly 4 stocks in bearish P&F patterns for every one in a bullish pattern. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market beginning a slow recovery attempt from an extremely bearish market driven periodically lower by bearish spikes. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the first time in ten weeks with a rise of 234 points. At -1405, it may have put in a bottom last week, but is still below the October 2005 low, the July 2006 low, and the August 2007 July 2008 low points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index has a count of two (2) accumulation days and one (1) distribution day in the last two weeks and is currently in neither nor distribution mode.  Last week it also ended in neither accumulation nor distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, this week the S&P (SPI) again ended in accumulation mode while the DOW (DIA) again ended in neither accumulation nor distribution mode.
Momentum: Since the CCI(20) Daily down-trend began Monday 9/8, we have not had a Zero Line Reject (ZLR) that presented a CCI(20) within the +/-50 range, and we do not take ZLR trades outside the range, since the risk to reward ratio is lower. This past week, the CCI(20) continued above zero to almost +100, but in less than 6 days dropped back below zero. we are now in the range where a ZLR Short entry signal is possible.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a down trend thirteen weeks ago, while the Daily CCI(20) began an down trend nine weeks ago.
The ZLR Short entry from Friday 8/22 close continued another week with the Weekly CCI(20) increasing but still below -100, so we stay in the trade. We will continue to follow the results of this trade simulation in next week’s commentary.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All top five and four of the bottom five industries are now positive over the last two weeks. Bearish: Banks (BKX) have dropped from the top to the bottom five. Oil (XOI) and Oil Services (OSX) are back in the top five. S&P Retail has dropped out of the top five. Gold & Silver (XAU) has moved from the top of the bottom five to leadership of the top five. Computer Tech (XCI) has entered the bottom five.  Bullish: Disk Drives (DDX) have left the bottom five.
Focus This Week: How would you have done if you had taken the last Sand 2 Pirls Market Signal call? Our last Direction call was Dn (Down) from September 7 to November 2. If you had been in any of the many Rydex Inverse Funds for our signal, you would have done quite well. All but two Rydex Inverse Funds made more than 20% with the highest five over 25%. The winner for the period was the 2x inverse of the Russell 2000, up 43%.  Not bad for 8 weeks!

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

November 1, 2008

10-31-08 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 9:12 am
Subscriber email sent 11-1-08:

Market Breadth: Our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio increased this week. Up from last week’s low record of 0.07, it is still bearish at 0.46 but is now back into the range encountered in early August 2008. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns decreased by 34% to 1564. The count of Bearish stocks decreased by 52%, more than half while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns increased by over 214%, more than triple. There are now just over 2 stocks in bearish P&F patterns for every one in a bullish pattern. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market beginning a recovery attempt from an extremely bearish market driven periodically lower by bearish spikes. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) decreased for the ninth consecutive time in sixteen weeks with a drop of 13 points. At -1639, it continues below the intermediate bottom it made thirteen weeks ago, and below the October 2005 low, the July 2006 low, the August 2007 July 2008 low points, although it is now rising from its low early in the week.
The Nasdaq Composite Index has a count of two (2) accumulation days and two (2) distribution days in the last two weeks and is currently in neither nor distribution mode.  Last week it also ended in neither accumulation nor distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, this week the S&P (SPI) ended in accumulation mode while the DOW (DIA) ended in neither accumulation nor distribution mode.
Momentum: As we stated previously, since the CCI(20) Daily down-trend began Monday 9/8, we have not had a Zero Line Reject (ZLR) that presented a CCI(20) within the +/-50 range, and we do not take ZLR trades outside the range, since the risk to reward ratio is lower. This past week, the CCI(20) rose above zero, so a ZLR Short entry signal is now possible.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a down trend twelve weeks ago, while the Daily CCI(20) began an down trend eight weeks ago.
The ZLR Short entry from Friday 8/22 close continued another week with the Weekly CCI(20) increasing but still below -100, so we stay in the trade. We will continue to follow the results of this trade simulation in next week’s commentary.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All top five industries are now positive over the last two weeks. Bullish: S&P Retail leads the top five. Banks (BKX) continues in the top five. Gold & Silver (XAU) continues to lead the bottom five. REITs (DJR) has left the bottom five.   Bearish: Brokers (XBD) has entered the bottom five. Disk Drives (DDX) remain in the bottom five.
Semis 2% 3 box rev. P&F Chart
Focus This Week: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is often regarded as a bell-weather  for technology.  Has it made a bottom? There are indications that it has. Looking at a 2% 3 box reversal Point & Figure Chart of the SOX, we see that this week on 10-28-08, it gave a bullish Low Pole Reversal signal. If it reaches 253.10, that will trigger a double top break out signal.  Recovery of technology industries could now be in its early stages.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

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