Sand 2 Pirls Market Commentary a weekly technical stock market overview featuring our custom Bull/Bear P&F ratio

December 28, 2008

12-26-08 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 12:52 pm
Subscriber email sent 12-28-08:

Market Breadth: Our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio decreased this week from 0.70 to 0.48, still higher than all but 2 values since September 5 when the the ratio was 0.34. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns decreased by 8% to 1602. The count of Bearish stocks increased by 6%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns decreased by 27%. There are now just over 2 stocks in bearish P&F patterns for every one in a bullish pattern. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart now show us a bearish market which has slipped somewhat from the recovery attempt we noted last week. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the sixth time in seventeen weeks with a rise of 67 points. At -691, it is now above all bottoms since 2003.
The Nasdaq Composite Index has a count of three (3) accumulation days and one (1) distribution day in the last two weeks and is currently in accumulation mode.  Last week it ended in accumulation mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, this week both the S&P (SPI) and the DOW (DIA) ended in accumulation mode.
Momentum: On Monday 12/15 the Daily CCI(20) had six days above zero and therefore shifted from down trend to uptrend. Although the CCI(20) is within the +/- 50 range the ZLR (Zero Line Reject) Long entry signal on Friday 12/26 does not qualify because the increase of the CCI(20) was less than 15.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a down trend twenty weeks ago, while the Daily CCI(20) began an up trend last week and continues above zero.
We continue to wait for the CCI(20) to give us another ZLR Short entry signal or for a shift from down to up trend if the weekly CCI(20) rises above zero for six consecutive weeks.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: Four of the top 5 industries are slightly positive over the last two weeks while all bottom 5 industries continue negative. Bullish: Gold & Silver (XAU) has left the the top five. Oil Services (OSX) is back in the bottom five. Brokers (XBD), Computer Tech (XBD), and S&P Retail (RLX) have left the bottom five.   Bearish:  Banks (BKX) continue in the bottom five. Semis (SOX) has dropped out of the top five and is now third in the bottom five.
Focus This Week: Within the last 30 days, the dollar has begun to break down when measured against Gold.  We expect this trend to continue.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

December 21, 2008

12-19-08 Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 11:46 am
Subscriber email sent 12-21-08:

Market Breadth: Our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio increased this week from 0.32 to 0.70, now the highest since September 19 when the the ratio was 1.06. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns increased by 17% to 1733. The count of Bearish stocks decreased by 9%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns increased by 100%, doubling. There are now less than 1.5 stocks in bearish P&F patterns for every one in a bullish pattern. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart now show us a bearish market which is making the strongest recovery attempt in fourteen weeks. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the fifth time in sixteen weeks with a rise of 227 points. At -758, it is now above all bottoms since 2003.
The Nasdaq Composite Index has a count of four (4) accumulation days and one (1) distribution days in the last two weeks and is currently in accumulation mode.  Last week it ended in neither accumulation nor distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, this week the S&P (SPI) again ended in accumulation mode.
Momentum: On Monday 12/15 the Daily CCI(20) had six days above zero and therefore shifted from down trend to uptrend. We wait for the indicator to return to the +/- 50 range for a possible ZLR (Zero Line Reject) Long entry signal.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a down trend nineteen weeks ago, while the Daily CCI(20) began an up trend this week and currently has ten bars above zero.
After completing a very profitable trade last week, we wait for the CCI(20) to give us another ZLR Short entry signal or for a shift from down to up trend if the weekly CCI(20) rises above zero for six consecutive weeks.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All top 5 industries continue positive over the last two weeks while all bottom 5 industries are now back negative. Bullish: Semis (SOX) continues in the top five. Bearish:  Gold & Silver (XAU) continues in and now leads in the top five. Banks (BKX) lead the bottom five. Brokers (XBD), Computer Tech (XBD), and S&P Retail (RLX) are in teh bottom five. REITs (DJR) and Disk Drives (DDX) have dropped out of the top five. Oil Services (OSX) have moved out of the bottom five.
Focus This Week: Although it has retraced some of its recent gains, Gold continues on the rise since November lows. A move above 898.9 will give a Point & Figure breakout signal on the 2% 3 box reversal chart.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

December 14, 2008

12-12-08 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 8:32 am

Subscriber email sent 12-14-08:

Market Breadth: Our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio increased this week from 0.21 to 0.32, still very bearish, but higher than eight of the previous ten weeks. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns decreased by 3% to 1475. The count of Bearish stocks decreased by 11%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns increased by 35%. There are now over three stocks in bearish P&F patterns for every one in a bullish pattern. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart continues to show us a very bearish market repeatedly attempting to recover. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the fourth time in fifteen weeks with a rise of 315 points. At -985, it is above an intermediate bottom four weeks ago, but is still just below the October 2005 low, the July 2006 low, and the August 2007 low points. However, it has just risen above the July 2008.
The Nasdaq Composite Index has a count of four (4) accumulation days and two (2) distribution days in the last two weeks and is currently in neither accumulation nor distribution mode.  Last week it ended in accumulation mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, this week both the S&P (SPI) and the DOW (DIA) again ended in accumulation mode.
Momentum: At Tuesday 12/2 close, had a Zero Line Reject (ZLR) short entry. However, since then the CCI(20) moved upward and passed the ZLR pivot at Monday 12/8 close. We exit the trade at Tuesday 12/9 open for a loss of 117.59 points on the Nasdaq Composite or $2.38 per share of QQQQ.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a down trend eighteen weeks ago, while the Daily CCI(20) began an down trend fourteen weeks ago and currently has five bars above zero.
The exit signal we mentioned last week as occurring at Friday 12/5 close when the CCI(20) crossed above the -100 line completed the trade begun with the ZLR Short entry at Friday 8/22 open. The result was a gain of 858.29 points on the Nasdaq Composite or $17.57 per share of QQQQ.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All top 5 industries continue positive over the last two weeks while all bottom 5 industare now also positiveries . Bullish: REITs (DJR) leads the top five. Disk Drives (DDX) remains in the top five, while Oil Services (OSX) remains in the bottom five. Semis (SOX) has entered the top five. Bearish:  Gold & Silver (XAU) continues in the top five.
Focus This Week: Although it has retraced some of its recent gains, the semiconductor index (SOX) has broken out to the upside. A move above 216.0 will give a Point & Figure breakout signal on the 2% 3 box reversal chart.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

December 6, 2008

12-5-08 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 2:28 pm
Subscriber email sent 12-6-08:

Market Breadth: Our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio decreased this week from 0.36 to 0.21, but still higher than seven of the last eleven weeks. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns increased by 2% to 1523. The count of Bearish stocks increased by 15%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns decreased by 33%. There are now almost five stocks in bearish P&F patterns for every one in a bullish pattern. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart continues to show us a very bearish market repeatedly attempting to recover. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the third time in fourteen weeks with a rise of 250 points. At -1300, it is above an intermediate bottom four weeks ago, yet remains below the October 2005 low, the July 2006 low, and the August 2007 July 2008 low points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index has a count of three (3) accumulation days and two (2) distribution days in the last two weeks and is currently in accumulation mode.  Last week it ended in neither accumulation nor distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, this week both the S&P (SPI) and the DOW (DIA) ended in accumulation mode.
Momentum: At Monday 12/1 close, had a Zero Line Reject (ZLR) short entry signal. However, since then teh CCI(20) has moved upward, but has not yet passed the ZLR pivot. If it does, we will exit the trade for a loss.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a down trend seventeen weeks ago, while the Daily CCI(20) began an down trend thirteen weeks ago.
The exit signal we mentioned last week as being likely occurred at Friday 12/5 close when the CCI(20) crossed above the -100 line. The ZLR Short entry for the trade was at Friday 8/22 open. We will report the results of the trade in next week’s commentary.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All top 5 industries continue positive over the last two weeks while all bottom 5 industries remain negative. Bullish: Gold & Silver (XAU) has entered the bottom five after leading the top five. REITs (DJR) have left the bottom five. Oil (XOI) and Oil Services (OSX) have entered the bottom five. Brokers (XBD) and S&P Retail (RLX) continue in the top five joined by Disk Drives (DDX), and Banks (BKX). Bearish:  None.
Focus This Week: Again this week we look at the S&P Consumer Discretionary Spending index 2% 3 box reversal Point & Figure Chart. Volume has increased and we have a new Bullish signal. A partial retracement is always possible, but we may be headed to the range experienced in 2001 & 2002.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

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