Sand 2 Pirls Market Commentary a weekly technical stock market overview featuring our custom Bull/Bear P&F ratio

January 31, 2009

1-30-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 4:01 pm
Subscriber email sent 1-31-09:

Market Breadth: With this week’s fractional decline, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio rose from 0.27 to 0.47, remaining in strongly bearish territory. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns decreased by 9% to 1262. The count of Bearish stocks decreased by 21%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns increased by 36%. There are now over two stocks in a bearish P&F pattern for every one in a bullish pattern. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market which has dropped back into bearish territory following a brief rally. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the ninth time in thirteen weeks with a gain of 33 points. At -379, it has recently formed the most recent top in a series of six progressively lower tops since November 2008.
The Nasdaq Composite Index has a count of two (2) accumulation days and two (2) distribution days in the last two weeks and is currently in distribution mode.  (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, this week both the DOW (DIA) and the SP&P (SPI) ended in distribution mode.
Momentum: With the CCI(20) Daily beginning a downtrend last week, at Thursday 1/29 close teh CCI(20) gave us a Zero Line Reject (ZLR) Short signal in the +/- 50 range.  We will follow the results of this trade simulation in next week’s commentary.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a down trend twenty-five weeks ago, while the Daily CCI(20) began an downtrend last week.
On Friday 1/16, the CCI(20) gave us a ZLR Short entry signal with the pivot in the +/- 50 range and the move down more than 15 point. At the next market open, Tuesday 1/20, we entered the trade with the CCI(20) continuing downwards for the week. Last week the CCI(20) leveled off, but did not rise above the ZLR pivot, so we stay in the trade. We will continue to follow this trade simulation in next week’s commentary.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All the top five industries are positive over the last two weeks and all the bottom five are negative. Bullish: Brokers (XBD) leads the top five.  Banks (BKX) has moved from the bottom five into in the top five. Bearish:  Gold & Silver (XAU) continues in the top five.  Computer Hardware (HWI) has left the top five. Oil Services (OSX) continues in the top five. S&P Retail (RLX) continues in the bottom five.
Focus This Week: The National Debt has to be financed for the economy to recover. Looking at a 2% 3 box reversal Point & Figure Chart of the 5 year Treasury Note Yield, it appears that things may be turning around.  On Thursday January 29, the FVX broke though resistance formed since the December 2008 bottom giving a Double Top Breakout signal.  If the trend continues, other longer term Treasury Note Yields should follow.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

January 24, 2009

1-23-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 11:52 am
Subscriber email sent 1-24-09:

Market Breadth: With this week’s market decline, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio fell from 0.35 to 0.27, deeper into strongly bearish territory. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns increased by 4% to 1388. The count of Bearish stocks increased by 10%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns decreased by 14%. There are now close to four stocks in a bearish P&F pattern for every one in a bullish pattern. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market which dropped back into bearish territory following a brief rally. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) decreased for the fourth time in twelve weeks with a fall of 100 points. At -411, it has recently formed the most recent top in a series of six progressively lower tops since November 2008.
The Nasdaq Composite Index has a count of three (3) accumulation days and one (1) distribution day in the last two weeks and is currently in neither accumulation nor distribution mode.  (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, this week the DOW (DIA) ended in distribution mode while the S&P (SPI) did not.
Momentum: Now that the CCI(20) Daily is officially in a downtrend, we await a Zero Line Reject (ZLR) Short signal in the +/- 50 range.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a down trend twenty-four weeks ago, while the Daily CCI(20) began an downtrend this week.
On Friday 1/16, the CCI(20) gave us a ZLR Short entry signal with the pivot in the +/- 50 range and the move down more than 15 point. At the next market open, Tuesday 1/20, we entered the trade with the CCI(20) continuing downwards for the week. We will continue to follow this trade in next week’s commentary.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All the top five industries are positive over the last two weeks and all the bottom five are negative. Bullish: Computer Hardware (HWI) continues in the top five. Brokers (XBD) has left the bottom five.  Bearish:  Gold & Silver (XAU) leads the top five.  Banks (BKX) continue to lead the bottom five.  Oil Services (OSX) has moved from the bottom five back to the top five. Disk Drives (DDX) and S&P Retail (RLX) are in the bottom five.
Focus This Week: Last week we pointed out a buying opportunity for Gold. This week, we did in fact get the Triple Top Breakout we expected. Again we note that now that Gold has broken above 881.2, its increase is likely to accelerate.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

January 19, 2009

1-16-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 1:50 pm
Subscriber email sent 1-19-09:

Market Breadth: With this week’s market decline, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio fell from 1.21 to to 0.35, back in strongly bearish territory although higher than 10 of the 16 other values since 9/26/08. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns decreased by 17% to 1340. The count of Bearish stocks increased by 36%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns decreased by 61%. There are now close to three stocks in a bearish P&F pattern for every one in a bullish pattern. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market which dropped back into bearish territory following a brief rally. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) decreased for the third time in eleven weeks with a fall of 19 points. At -311, it has recently formed the most recent top in a series of six progressively lower tops since November 2008.
Market Gage data is not available this week for unspecified reasons.
Momentum: Following the end of profitable Long trade closing last week. We await a trend change at 6 days of CCI(20) below zero, followed by a Zero Line Reject (ZLR) Short signal in the +/- 50 range of the CCI(20).
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a down trend twenty-three weeks ago, while the Daily CCI(20) began an up trend five weeks ago and appears ready to change to a down trend next week.
The CCI(20) has now give us a ZLR Short entry signal with the pivot in the +/- 50 range and the move down more than 15 point. We will follow this trade in next week’s commentary.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: Only the top industry is significantly positive over the last two weeks. Bullish: Computer Hardware (HWI) continues to lead the top five. Internets (DOT) are in the top five. Oil Services (OSX) has moved from the top five to the bottom five. REITs (DJR) has left the bottom five. Bearish:  Gold & Silver (XAU) has left the bottom five.  Banks (BKX) lead the bottom five.  Brokers (XBD) has moved from the top to the bottom five.
Focus This Week: Gold broke through support this week, with a P&F Double Bottom Breakdown signal.  However, with accompanying market declines, we expect a rebound as more safe money enters the Gold haven.  Note that based on current price resistance values shown in the P&F chart, once Gold breaks above 881.2, its increase is likely to accelerate.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

January 10, 2009

1-9-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 11:12 am
Subscriber email sent 1-10-09:

Market Breadth: Although the market declined, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio increased again this week from 1.17 to 1.21, continuing in Bull territory and higher than any value since May 16, 2008, when the the ratio was 1.34. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns decreased by 12% to 1621. The count of Bearish stocks decreased by 14%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns decreased by 10%. There is now more than one stock in a bullish P&F pattern for every one in a bearish pattern. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market which has shifted from bearish to bullish, but stability of the recovery is not yet firmly established. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the eighth time in nineteen weeks with a rise of 277 points. At -263, it continues above all bottoms since 2003.
The Nasdaq Composite Index has a count of four (4) accumulation days and two (2) distribution day in the last two weeks and is currently in neither accumulation nor distribution mode.  Last week it also ended in neither accumulation nor distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, this week the DOW (DIA) ended in distribution mode while the S&P (SPI) did not.
Momentum: At Wednesday 12/31 open we entered a ZLR Long. At Wednesday 1/7 close the CCI(20) broke below +100 giving the exit signal for Thursday 1/8 open. The result was a gain of 39.38 points on the Nasdaq Composite or $0.92 per share of QQQQ.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a down trend twenty-two weeks ago, while the Daily CCI(20) began an up trend three weeks ago and continues above zero.
We continue to wait for the CCI(20) to give us another ZLR Short entry signal or for a shift from down to up trend if the weekly CCI(20) rises above zero for six consecutive weeks.  With the CCI(20) at -42 we are now in the +/-50 range where a ZLR short entry signal is valid.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All top five industries are positive over the last two weeks. Bullish: Computer Hardware (HWI) has entered and leads the top five. Disk Drives (DDX) and Brokers (XBD) continue in the top five. Gold & Silver (XAU) leads the bottom five.  Bearish:  Oil Services (OSX) remains in the top five. REITs (DJR) remains in the bottom five. Banks (BKX) are in the bottom five.
Focus This Week: How is the Banking Index holding up? Not too well. On Friday 1/9/09 it broke through support giving a Point & Figure “Tripple Bottom Breakdown” signal. Since at least moderate banking strength is needed to fund a market rally, unless the index recovers, recent market gains may not hold.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

January 3, 2009

1-2-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 5:11 pm
Subscriber email sent 1-3-09:

Market Breadth: Our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio increased this week from 0.48 to 1.17, now in Bull territory and higher than any value since May 16, 2008, when the the ratio was 1.34. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns increased by 15% to 1837. The count of Bearish stocks decreased by 22%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns increased by 92%. There is now just more than one stock in a bullish P&F pattern for every one in a bearish pattern. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart now shows us a market which has just shifted from bearish to bullish, but stability of the recovery is not yet firmly established. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the seventh time in eighteen weeks with a rise of 152 points. At -539, it continues above all bottoms since 2003.
The Nasdaq Composite Index has a count of four (4) accumulation days and one (1) distribution day in the last two weeks and is currently in neither accumulation nor distribution mode.  Last week it ended in accumulation mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, this week the DOW (DIA) ended in accumulation mode while the S&P (SPI) did not.
Momentum: Last week we had a ZLR that did not qualify as a Long entry signal due to insufficient change in the CCI(20). On Tuesday 12/30 this week another ZLR with sufficient change and within the +/-50 range formed providing a Long entry signal at Wednesday 12/31 open. We will continue following the this trade next week and following.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a down trend twenty-one weeks ago, while the Daily CCI(20) began an up trend two weeks ago and continues above zero.
We continue to wait for the CCI(20) to give us another ZLR Short entry signal or for a shift from down to up trend if the weekly CCI(20) rises above zero for six consecutive weeks.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All industries are positive over the last two weeks. Bullish: Disk Drives (DDX) and Brokers (XBD) have entered the top five.   Bearish:  Oil Services (OSX) leads the top five. Gold & Silver (XAU) is back in the top five. REITs (DJR) leads the bottom five followed by Internets (DOT).
Focus This Week: Last week we noted the drop in the U.S. Dollar and the rise in Gold in the last 30 days. What about other world currencies? All the others are between Gold and the Dollar, but the only other negative currency is the British Pound.  Simply click on the image and modify the time scale to follow the trends as they develop.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

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