Sand 2 Pirls Market Commentary a weekly technical stock market overview featuring our custom Bull/Bear P&F ratio

February 28, 2009

2-27-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 11:27 am
Subscriber email sent 2-28-09:

Market Breadth: With this week’s market decline, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio fell from 0.17 to 0.13, moving deeper into very strongly bearish territory. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns decreased by 2% to 1743. The count of Bearish stocks increased by 2%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns decreased by 24%. There are now close to 8 stocks in a bearish P&F pattern for every one in a bullish pattern. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market which continues to fall back into bearish territory following repeated attempts to rise. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) decreased for the sixth time in seventeen weeks with a loss of 268 points. At -726, it it is falling from the most recent top seven weeks ago which is the latest in a series of six progressively lower tops since November 2008.
The Nasdaq Composite Index has a count of two (2) accumulation days and four (4) distribution days in the last two weeks and is currently in distribution mode.  Last week it ended in distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, this week the DOW (DIA) ended in distribution mode while the SP&P (SPI) ended in neither accumulation nor distribution mode.
Momentum: At Tuesday 2/24 close we had six days of the CCI(20) daily below zero putting us in a downtrend by Woodie’s definition. Now we wait for the CCI(20) to pass above -50 to qualify for a ZLR short signal.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a down trend twenty-nine weeks ago, while the Daily CCI(20) began a downtrend this last week.
At Friday 2/20 close the CCI(20) weekly gave us a ZLR Short entry signal to take at the Monday 2/23 open.  The trade continued favorably for the week. We will continue to follow this trade in next week’s commentary.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: Of the top five industries, only the top four are positive over the last two weeks and all the bottom five are negative. Bullish: Internets (DOT) remain in the top five.  Banks (BKX) have moved from the bottom to the the top five. Gold & Silver (XAU) has dropped out of the top five. REITs (DJR) have left the bottom five. Bearish:  Oil Services (OSX) is in the the five.  Disk Drives (DDX) are in the bottom five.
Focus This Week: How are defense contractors doing with the change in administration and the difficult economy? Lockheed Martin is typical showing an abrupt drop this month. However, we expect this might actually be a buying opportunity for those who know that Mr. Obama is not actually against the Military Industrial Complex (warned of by Eisenhower) as many suppose.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

2-20-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 9:18 am
Subscriber email sent 2-21-09:

Market Breadth: With this week’s market decline, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio fell from 0.49 to 0.17, moving into very strongly bearish territory. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns decreased by 32% to 1781. The count of Bearish stocks increased by 67%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns decreased by 40%. There are now close to 6 stocks in a bearish P&F pattern for every one in a bullish pattern. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market which continues to fall back into bearish territory following repeated attempts to rise. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) decreased for the fifth time in sixteen weeks with a loss of 175 points. At -458, it it is falling from the most recent top six weeks ago which is the latest in a series of six progressively lower tops since November 2008.
The Nasdaq Composite Index has a count of two (2) accumulation days and three (3) distribution days in the last two weeks and is currently in distribution mode.  Last week it ended in neither accumulation nor distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, this week both the DOW (DIA) and the SP&P (SPI) ended in distribution mode.
Momentum: At Friday 2-13 close we had a Zero Line Reject (ZLR) Long entry signal entering the trade at Tuesday 2-17 open.  However, at Tuesday close the CCI(20) had fallen far below the ZLR pivot, so we exit the trade at Wednesday 2-18 open for a loss of 8.47 on the Nasdaq Composite or $0.08 per share of QQQQ. Two more days below zero will put the CCI(20) in a downtrend, but the CCI(20) will need to pass above -50 to qualify for a ZLR short signal.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a down trend twenty-eight weeks ago, while the Daily CCI(20) began an uptrend two weeks ago.
At Friday 2/20 close the CCI(20) weekly gave us a ZLR Short entry signal to take at next Monday’s open.  We will follow this trade in next week’s commentary.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: Of the top five industries, only Gold & Silver is positive over the last two weeks and all the bottom five are negative. Bullish: Internets (DOT) are in the top five.  Bearish:  Gold & Silver (XAU) leads the top five. Banks (BKX) leads the bottom five. Computer Hardware (HW) has left the top five. REITs (DJR) remain in the bottom five.
Focus This Week: The precious metals index (GPX) has been in a bullish breakout pattern since January 23. Will it begin retracement soon or or continue upwards unabated to challenge the all time high made in early 2008 which is now less than 10% higher.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

February 14, 2009

2-13-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 2:43 pm
Subscriber email sent 2-14-09:

Market Breadth: With this week’s market decline, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio fell from 0.71 to 0.49, moving into more strongly bearish territory. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns decreased by 5% to 1347. The count of Bearish stocks increased by 10%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns decreased by 25%. There are now just over 2 stocks in a bearish P&F pattern for every one in a bullish pattern. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market which remains in bearish territory but appears to be attempting to rise. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the eleventh time in fifteen weeks with a gain of 40 points. At -283, it it is approaching the most recent top five weeks ago which is the latest in a series of six progressively lower tops since November 2008. It may soon be headed higher in an attempt to reverse this trend of lower highs.
The Nasdaq Composite Index has a count of three (3) accumulation days and three (3) distribution days in the last two weeks and is currently in neither accumulation nor distribution mode.  Last week it also ended in neither accumulation nor distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, this week both the DOW (DIA) and the SP&P (SPI) ended in neither accumulation nor distribution mode.
Momentum: As we expected, as of 2-11 with 6 days of the CCI(20) above zero, the daily CCI(20) is now in an uptrend. At Friday 2-13 close we had a ZLR Long entry signal.  We will follow the results of this trade simulation in next week’s commentary.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a down trend twenty-seven weeks ago, while the Daily CCI(20) began an uptrend this past week.
On Friday 1/16, the CCI(20) gave us a ZLR Short entry signal with the pivot in the +/- 50 range and the move down more than 15 point. At the next market open, Tuesday 1/20, we entered the trade with the CCI(20) continuing downwards for the week. The CCI(20) then leveled off, but did not rise above the ZLR pivot.  On Friday 2/6 the CCI(20) rose above the ZLR pivot, so we exited the Short trade at Monday 2/9 open. The result is a loss of 69.98 points on the Nasdaq Composite or $2.09 per share of QQQQ.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All the top five industries are positive over the last two weeks and all the bottom five are negative. Bullish: Computer Hardware (HW) remains in the top five. Bearish:  Gold & Silver (XAU) leads the top five. Brokers (XBD) and Banks (BKX) have left the top five.  Banks (BKX) and REITs (DJR) have entered the bottom five. Internet Index Interactive Week (IIX) has left the top five.
Focus This Week: The healthcare index is close to a breakout point. With the input of a significant amount of Federal “bailout” dollars into this sector, it could move back towards its highs in 2007 and perhaps beyond.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

February 8, 2009

2-6-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 4:04 pm
Subscriber email sent 2-8-09:

Market Breadth: With this week’s market rise, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio rose from 0.47 to 0.71, moving into less strongly bearish territory. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns increased by 12% to 1412. The count of Bearish stocks decreased by 4%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns increased by 46%. There are now less than 1.5 stocks in a bearish P&F pattern for every one in a bullish pattern. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market which has dropped back into bearish territory following a brief rally. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the tenth time in fourteen weeks with a gain of 56 points. At -323, it has recently formed the most recent top in a series of six progressively lower tops since November 2008 and may soon be headed higher.
The Nasdaq Composite Index has a count of two (2) accumulation days and three (3) distribution days in the last two weeks and is currently in neitehr accumulation nor distribution mode.  (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, this week both the DOW (DIA) and the SP&P (SPI) ended in neither accumulation nor distribution mode.
Momentum: At Thursday 1/29 close the CCI(20) gave us a Zero Line Reject (ZLR) Short signal in the +/- 50 range.  The trade exit signal was at close Tuesday 2/3 when the CCI(20) turned back towards the zero line. The trade gave us a profit of 2.27 points on the Nasdaq but a loss of $0.14 per share of QQQQ.The CCI(20) is now above 100 with a count of three days above zero. A Trend change appears likely for 2/11 next week.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a down trend twenty-six weeks ago, while the Daily CCI(20) began an downtrend two weeks ago and appears likely to change back to up next week.
On Friday 1/16, the CCI(20) gave us a ZLR Short entry signal with the pivot in the +/- 50 range and the move down more than 15 point. At the next market open, Tuesday 1/20, we entered the trade with the CCI(20) continuing downwards for the week. Two weeks ago, the CCI(20) leveled off, but did not rise above the ZLR pivot.  Last week the CCI(20) rose above the ZLR pivot, so we exit the trade at next Monday’s open. We will show the results of this trade simulation in next week’s commentary.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All the top five industries are positive over the last two weeks and all the bottom five are negative or zero. Bullish: Computer Hardware (HW) leads the top five. Brokers (XBD) and Banks (BKX) continue in the top five.  Internet Index Interactive Week (IIX) has entered the top five. Bearish:  Internet Index Philadelphia (DOT) has entered the bottom five.
Focus This Week: Looking at two Technology Indexes, the S&P (XLK) and the Philadelphia ($DOT), we find we are at or very near bullish breakout territory.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

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