Sand 2 Pirls Market Commentary a weekly technical stock market overview featuring our custom Bull/Bear P&F ratio

March 28, 2009

3-27-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 1:57 pm
Subscriber email sent 3-28-09:

Market Breadth: With this week’s continued market rise, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio rose again 0.67 to 1.17, moving into Bull territory. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns increased by 5% to 1170. The count of Bearish stocks decreased by 19%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns increased by 41%. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market which which has now climbed back into bullish territory. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the thirteenth time in twenty weeks with a gain of 291 points. At -738, it continues within the pattern of lower tops and bottoms since November 2008.
Volume Analysis shows the Nasdaq Composite Index ending the week in Distribution mode with three (3) Accumulation Days and three (3) Distribution days. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.)
Momentum: At Friday 3/20 close we had six days of the CCI(20) daily above zero putting us in an uptrend by Woodie’s definition. We continue to wait for the CCI(20) to give a ZLR (Zero Line Reject) signal within the +/-50 range. The previous Woodie’s downtrend did not give us a trade entry signal.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began an down trend thirty-two weeks ago, while the Daily CCI(20) began an uptrend one week ago.
The Short trade from Monday 2/23 open to Monday 2/23 close gave us a loss of 38.68 points on the Nasdaq Composite or $0.83 per share of QQQQ. The CCI(20) is now above zero, so we wait for either a ZLR Short signal in the +/-50 range or if the CCI(20) stays above zero for six weeks, we may get a Long entry signal.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: Again this week, all the top five industries are positive, and only the lowest of the bottom five is not. Bullish: Disk Drives (DDX), Brokers (XBD), and Computer Hardware (HWI) remain in the top five. Bearish:  Banks (BKX) has left the top five. Oil Services (OSX) has left the bottom five. REITs (DJR) remain in the bottom five. Internets (DOT) remains the lowest of the bottom five.
Focus This Week: With the market rising, how is the financial sector doing? A week ago we did get a Bullish Point & Figure signal on the the S&P Financials 5 percent 3 box reversal chart, but the red resistance line in the chart shows that the down trend has not yet clearly reversed.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

March 21, 2009

3-20-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 8:46 am
Subscriber email sent 3-21-09:

Market Breadth: With this week’s continued market rise, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio rose again from 0.34 to 0.67, climbing upwards into less strongly bearish territory. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns decreased by 22% to 1114. The count of Bearish stocks decreased by 37%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns increased by 25%. There are now almost 1.5 stocks in a bearish P&F pattern for every one in a bullish pattern. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market which continues its attempt to climb back into bullish territory. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the thirteenth time in twenty weeks with a gain of 291 points. At -738, it continues within the pattern of lower tops and bottoms since November 2008.
Volume Analysis shows the Nasdaq Composite Index ending the week in Distribution mode with three (3) Accumulation Days and three (3) Distribution days. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.)
Momentum: At Friday 3/20 close we had six days of the CCI(20) daily above zero putting us in an uptrend by Woodie’s definition. We now wait for the CCI(20) to give a ZLR (Zero Line Reject) signal within the +/-50 range. The previous Woodie’s downtrend did not give us a trade entry signal.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began an down trend thirty-two weeks ago, while the Daily CCI(20) began an uptrend this week.
At Friday 3/20 close the CCI(20) weekly gave our ZLR (Zero Line Reject) Short trade an exit signal when it rose above -100 to near the ZLR pivot. We will exit the trade at next Monday’s open.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: Again this week, all the top five industries are positive, and only the lowest of the bottom five is negative. Bullish: Disk Drives (DDX) and Brokers (XBD) remain in the top five. Banks (BKX) has entered the top five. Oil Services (OSX) have entered the bottom five. Computer Hardware (HWI) has entered the top five. Computer Tech (XCI) has left the bottom five. Bearish:  REITs (DJR) have moved back from the top to the bottom five.  Internets (DOT) is the lowest of the bottom five.
Focus This Week: With the market rising, are precious metals falling? They are not. In fact on Wednesday 3-18 we had a bullish Double Top Breakout signal on the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index (XAU).  We continue bullish on precious metals in this bear market rally.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

March 14, 2009

3-13-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 2:53 pm
Subscriber email set 3-14-09:

Market Breadth: With this week’s sharp market rise, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio rose from 0.10 to 0.34, climbing upwards from very strongly bearish territory. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns increased by 36% to 1423. The count of Bearish stocks decreased by 47%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns increased by 69%. There are now almost 3 stocks in a bearish P&F pattern for every one in a bullish pattern. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market which is again attempting to climb back into bullish territory. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the twelfth time in nineteen weeks with a gain of 4 points. At -1029, it is continues within the pattern of lower tops and bottoms since November 2008.
Nasdaq Composite Index Volume Analysis was not available last week for unknown reasons. Last week it ended in distribution mode.  (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.)
Momentum: At Tuesday 2/24 close we had six days of the CCI(20) daily below zero putting us in a downtrend by Woodie’s definition. We wait this week for the CCI(20) to give a ZLR (Zero Line Reject) signal within the +/-50 range. Alternatively, with one day CCI(20) above zero, we cold begin another uptrend if the CCI(20) is above zero all next week.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a down trend thirty-one weeks ago, while the Daily CCI(20) began a downtrend two weeks ago.
At Friday 2/20 close the CCI(20) weekly gave us a ZLR (Zero Line Reject) Short entry signal to take at the Monday 2/23 open.  The trade continued unfavorably this week, but we do not exit because the CCI(20) is below -100 which was our entry point. We will continue to follow this trade in next week’s commentary.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All the top five industries are positive, and only the lowest of the bottom five is negative. Bullish: Disk Drives (DDX) have entered and lead the top five. Semis (SOX) remain in the top five. Brokers (XBD) has entered the top five. Banks (BKX) have moved out of the bottom five. Oil Services (OSX) has left the top five. REITs (DJR) have moved from the bottom five to the top five.  Bearish:  Internets (DOT) have moved from the top five to the bottom five. Internet Interactive (IIX) has left the top five.  Computer Tech (XCI) is in the bottom five.
Focus This Week: Although the paper equities recovered this week, a look at the CRB Index (Commodity Research Bureau) shows that commodities have not yet begun to recover indicating that the “fire sale” is still on for those with real assets to invest. Accordingly we are skeptical of the strength of the equity market recovery until commodities have proven their stability and have begun to increase in value.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

March 7, 2009

3-6-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 10:59 am
Subscriber email sent 3-7-09:

Market Breadth: With this week’s continued market decline, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio fell from 0.13 to 0.10, moving even deeper into very strongly bearish territory. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns increased by 28% to 2234. The count of Bearish stocks increased by 31%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns increased by 5%. There are now well over 9 stocks in a bearish P&F pattern for every one in a bullish pattern. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market which continues to fall back into bearish territory following repeated attempts to rise. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) decreased for the seventh time in eighteen weeks with a loss of 307 points. At -1033, it is continues to fall from the most recent top eight weeks ago which is the latest in a series of six progressively lower tops since November 2008.
The Nasdaq Composite Index has a count of one (1) accumulation day and five (5) distribution days in the last two weeks and is currently in distribution mode.  Last week it ended in distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, this week the DOW (DIA) ended in accumulation mode while the SP&P (SPI) ended in neither accumulation nor distribution mode.
Momentum: At Tuesday 2/24 close we had six days of the CCI(20) daily below zero putting us in a downtrend by Woodie’s definition. We wait again this week for the CCI(20) to pass above -50 to qualify for a ZLR short signal.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a down trend thirty weeks ago, while the Daily CCI(20) began a downtrend one week ago.
At Friday 2/20 close the CCI(20) weekly gave us a ZLR (Zero Line Reject) Short entry signal to take at the Monday 2/23 open.  The trade continued favorably again this week. We will continue to follow this trade in next week’s commentary.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: Of the top five industries, only the top one is positive over the last two weeks. Bullish: Semis (SOX) have entered and lead the top five. Internets (DOT) remain in the top five. Internet Interactive (IIX) has entered the top five. Disk Drives (DDX) have left the bottom five. Bearish:  Banks (BKX) have moved from the top to the the bottom five. Oil Services (OSX) continues in the the top five. REITs (DJR) are back in the bottom five.
Focus This Week: Lets look again this week as we did at the beginning of the year at various World Currencies as well as the price of Gold.  In spite of a drop in Gold over the last few weeks, the trend seems clear –only Gold has significantly increased.  We expect this trend to continue.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

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