Sand 2 Pirls Market Commentary a weekly technical stock market overview featuring our custom Bull/Bear P&F ratio

April 26, 2009

4-24-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 9:25 pm
Subscriber email sent 4-26-09:

Market Breadth: With this week’s continued market rise, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio fell for the first time in 7 weeks from 2.22 to 2.08. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns decreased by 8% to 1333. The count of Bearish stocks decreased by 4%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns decreased by 10%. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market which has climbed back into bullish territory. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the sixteenth time in twenty-three weeks with a gain of 123 points. At +352, it continues above the October 2008 top, and has broken the pattern of lower tops and bottoms since October 2008.
Volume Analysis shows the Nasdaq Composite Index ending the week in Accumulation with four (4) Accumulation days and two (2) Distribution days. Last week it also ended in Accumulation mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.)  The S&P (SPY) again ended the week in Accumulation mode while the Dow (DIA) again ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode.
Momentum: At Friday 3/20 close we had six days of the CCI(20) daily above zero putting us in an uptrend by Woodie’s definition. Again this week, we continue to wait for the CCI(20) to give a ZLR (Zero Line Reject) signal within the +/-50 range. The lowest the CCI(20) fell last week was about +53.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began an down trend thirty-six weeks ago and in one week is likely to begin an up trend. The Daily CCI(20) began an uptrend five weeks ago.
The CCI(20) now has 5 weeks above zero and is above 100, so we wait for a signal change. After the CCI(20) has been above zero for a total of six weeks, we get a Long entry signal.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All the top five industries are positive, and all five of the bottom five are negative. Bullish: Networkers (NWX) and Computer Hardware (HWI) have entered the top five. Internets (DOT) has left the bottom five.  Bearish:  Banks (BKX), Brokers (XBD), and Networkers (NWX) have left the top five, and Banks (BKX) now leads the bottom five. Gold and Silver (XAU) has left the bottom five. Oil (XOI) has left the bottom five and entered the top five.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

April 18, 2009

4-17-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 11:09 am
Subscriber email sent 4-18-09:

Market Breadth: With this week’s continued market rise, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio rose again from 1.67 to 2.22, its highest value since 6/1/2009. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns increased by 11% to 1452. The count of Bearish stocks decreased by 8%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns increased by 22%. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market which has climbed back into bullish territory. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the fifteenth time in twenty-two weeks with a gain of 228 points. At +229, it continues above the October 2008 top, and has broken the pattern of lower tops and bottoms since October 2008.
Volume Analysis shows the Nasdaq Composite Index ending the week in Accumulation with three (3) Accumulation days and one (1) Distribution day. Last week it ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.)  The S&P (SPY) ended the week in Accumulation mode while the Dow (DIA) ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode.
Momentum: At Friday 3/20 close we had six days of the CCI(20) daily above zero putting us in an uptrend by Woodie’s definition. Again this week, we continue to wait for the CCI(20) to give a ZLR (Zero Line Reject) signal within the +/-50 range. The lowest the CCI(20) fell last week was about +80.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began an down trend thirty-five weeks ago and in two weeks is likely to begin an up trend. The Daily CCI(20) began an uptrend four weeks ago.
The CCI(20) now has 4 weeks above zero and is above 100, so we wait for either a ZLR Short signal in the +/-50 range, or if the CCI(20) stays above zero for a total of six weeks, we may get a Long entry signal.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All the top five industries are positive, and all five of the bottom five are negative or zero. Bullish: Banks (BKX), Brokers (XBD), and Networkers (NWX) remain in the top five. Gold and Silver (XAU) continues to lead the bottom five. Oil (XOI) has entered the bottom five.  Bearish:  REITs (DJR) has left the top five. Internets (DOT) remains in the bottom five.
Focus this week: With the market recovering, how is Consumer Discretionary Spending doing? As measured by the XLY, it is strongly recovering especially since a P&F Double Top Breakout on April 2. Some retracement is likely at this point, but if it can break through 22.6 and maintain, sustained recovery becomes more likely.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

April 11, 2009

4-10-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 1:29 pm
Subscriber email sent 4-11-09:

Market Breadth: With this week’s continued market rise, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio rose again from 1.38 to 1.67, further advancing its move into Bull territory. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns increased by 6% to 1308. The count of Bearish stocks decreased by 6%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns increased by 14%. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market in the process of establishing its climb back into bullish territory. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the fourteenth time in twenty-one weeks with a gain of 155 points. At +1, it has now risen above the October 2008 top, and has broken the pattern of lower tops and bottoms since October 2008.
Volume Analysis shows the Nasdaq Composite Index ending the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode with four (4) Accumulation days and one (1) Distribution day. Last week it also ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.)  The Dow (DIA) ended the week in Accumulation mode while the S&P (SPY) ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode.
Momentum: At Friday 3/20 close we had six days of the CCI(20) daily above zero putting us in an uptrend by Woodie’s definition. Again this week, we continue to wait for the CCI(20) to give a ZLR (Zero Line Reject) signal within the +/-50 range. The lowest the CCI(20) fell last week was about +72.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began an down trend thirty-four weeks ago, while the Daily CCI(20) began an uptrend three weeks ago.
The CCI(20) now has 3 weeks above zero and is above 100, so we wait for either a ZLR Short signal in the +/-50 range, or if the CCI(20) stays above zero for a total of six weeks, we may get a Long entry signal.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All the top five industries are positive, and four of the bottom five are negative. Bullish: REITs (DJR) leads the top five. Banks (BKX) and Brokers (XBD) have entered the top five. Networkers (NWX) remains in the top five. Gold and Silver (XAU) continues to lead the bottom five.   Bearish:  Internet-IW (IIX), and Semis (SOX) have left the top five. Internets (DOT) is in the bottom five.

Focus this week:The Philadelphia Banking Index (BKX) had a Bullish breakout this week having surpassed several resistance points established earlier this year.  Technical indications look good as shown in this 3 percent 3 box reversal Point & Figure chart, but time will tell if banking has recovered sufficiently to sustain longer term economic recovery.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

April 4, 2009

4-3-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 3:52 pm
Subscriber email sent 4-4-09:

Market Breadth: With this week’s continued market rise, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio rose again from 1.17 to 1.38, advancing its move into Bull territory. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns increased by 6% to 1238. The count of Bearish stocks decreased by 4%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns increased by 14%. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market which which in the process of establishing its climb back into bullish territory. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the fourteenth time in twenty-one weeks with a gain of 256 points. At -155, it has now risen above the previous top, breaking the pattern of lower tops and bottoms begun in November 2008.
Volume Analysis shows the Nasdaq Composite Index ending the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode with four (4) Accumulation days and one (1) Distribution day. Last week it ended in Distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.)  Both the S&P (SPY) and Dow (DIA) ended the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode.
Momentum: At Friday 3/20 close we had six days of the CCI(20) daily above zero putting us in an uptrend by Woodie’s definition. Again thsi week, we continue to wait for the CCI(20) to give a ZLR (Zero Line Reject) signal within the +/-50 range. The lowest the CCI(20) fell last week was about +60.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began an down trend thirty-three weeks ago, while the Daily CCI(20) began an uptrend two weeks ago.
The CCI(20) now have 2 weeks above zero, so we wait for either a ZLR Short signal in the +/-50 range or if the CCI(20) stays above zero for a total of six weeks, we may get a Long entry signal.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All the top five industries are positive, and all the bottom five are negative. Bullish: Networkers (NWX), Internet-IW (IIX), and Semis (SOX) have entered the top five. Gold and Silver (XAU) leads the bottom five. REITs (DJR) and Internets (DOT) have left the bottom five.  Bearish:  Disk Drives (DDX), Brokers (XBD), and Computer Hardware (HWI) have fallen from the top five.
Focus This Week: Although we are technically now in a bull market, the most frequently found Point & Figure pattern is a bearish one, the Triple Bottom Breakdown. There are about 1/3 more stocks in this pattern than in the corresponding Bullish pattern, the Triple Top Breakout.  If the market can continue to rise, these stocks will be fuel for the fire. Yet in their current patterns their technical function is to provide the counterweight to the market’s current rise.

Triple Bottom Breakdown
X             In a Triple Bottom Breakdown the price at which the breakdown occurred is a price that the chart retraced from two times before. This implies that the price level is a more significant area of support (area where buyers are willing to buy the stock and create demand that outstrips supply) than what is seen on a double bottom. The breakdown below this level implies that the sellers are now creating more supply than there is demand and therefore the prices are breaking down.
X O          
X O X        
X O X O X    
X O X O X O  
X O X O X O  
  O   O   O ←- triple bottom
          O ← triple bottom breakdown

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

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