Sand 2 Pirls Market Commentary a weekly technical stock market overview featuring our custom Bull/Bear P&F ratio

May 31, 2009

5-29-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 7:56 am
Subscriber email sent 5-30-09:

Market Breadth: With this week’s market rise, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio rose for the tenth time in twelve weeks from 2.14 to 2.67. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns increased by 17% to 1399. The count of Bearish stocks was unchanged, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns increased by 25%. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market in bullish territory that recently lost some significant ground but has recovered much of it. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) decreased for the third time in eleven weeks with a loss of 31 points. At +406, it continues above the October 2008 top, having broken the pattern of lower tops and bottoms since October 2008.
Volume Analysis shows the Nasdaq Composite Index ending the week in Accumulation mode with four (4) Accumulation day and two (2) Distributions day. Last week it ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.)  Both the the Dow (DIA) and the S&P (SPY) ended the week in Accumulation mode.
Momentum: Since Friday 3/20 close the CCI(20) daily has been in an uptrend by Woodie’s definition. Two weeks ago the CCI(20) fell below zero, then rebounded giving a Zero Line Reject (ZLR) Long entry signal at Tuesday 5/26 close. We will follow this trade simulation in next weeks commentary.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index has now been above zero for nine weeks, and began an up trend three weeks ago. The Daily CCI(20) began an uptrend ten weeks ago, and after falling below zero again this week gave a ZLR (zero line reject) Long signal.
The CCI(20) now has 9 weeks above zero, three weeks into an upward change of trend. We continue to wait for the CCI(20) to enter the +/- 50 range for a ZLR entry point.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All the top three industries are positive, and four of the bottom five are negative. Bullish: Semis (SOX) and Disk Drives (DDX) remain in the top five. REITs (DJR) has left the bottom five. Bearish:  Gold & Silver (XAU) continues to lead the top five. Banks (BKX) remain in the bottom five. Networkers (NWX) has left the top five. Oil Services (OSX) has entered the top five.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

May 23, 2009

5-22-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 7:42 am
Subscriber email sent 5-23-09:

Market Breadth: With this week’s fractional market rise, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio rose for the ninth time in eleven weeks from 1.72 to 2.4. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns decreased by 7% to 1198. The count of Bearish stocks decreased by 8%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns increased by 15%. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market in bullish territory that has recently lost some significant ground. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) decreased for the second time in ten weeks with a loss of 74 points. At +437, it continues above the October 2008 top, having broken the pattern of lower tops and bottoms since October 2008.
Volume Analysis shows the Nasdaq Composite Index ending the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode with one (1) Accumulation day and one (1) Distribution day. Last week it also ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.)  The S&P (SPY) ended the week in Distribution mode while the Dow (DIA) ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode.
Momentum: Since Friday 3/20 close the CCI(20) daily has been in an uptrend by Woodie’s definition. Last week the CCI(20) fell below zero, but passed back above zero until Thursday this week. With two consecutive days of the CCI(20) below zero, the Woodie’s trend could shift to downwards if the CCI(20) remains below zero for six consecutive days.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index has now been above zero for eight weeks, and began an up trend two weeks. The Daily CCI(20) began an uptrend nine weeks ago, but fell below zero again this week without giving an acceptable ZLR (zero line reject) Long signal.
The CCI(20) now has 8 weeks above zero, two weeks into an upward change of trend. We continue to wait for the CCI(20) to enter the +/- 50 range for a ZLR entry point.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All the top three industries are positive, and all the bottom five are negative. Bullish: Semis (SOX) has entered the top five. Disk Drives (DDX) have moved from the bottom to the top five. Networkers (NWX) has entered the top five. Bearish:  Gold & Silver (XAU) continues to lead the top five. Banks (BKX) lead the bottom five. REITs (DJR) remain in the bottom five.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

May 16, 2009

5-15-09

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 7:42 am
Subscriber email sent 5-16-09:

Market Breadth: With this week’s market decline, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio fell for the second time in ten weeks from 3.50 to 1.72. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns decreased by 32% to 1122. The count of Bearish stocks increased by 13%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns decreased by 45%. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market which has just dropped sharply after a strong rise into bullish territory. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) decreased for the first time in nine weeks with a loss of 98 points. At +511, it continues above the October 2008 top, having broken the pattern of lower tops and bottoms since October 2008.
Volume Analysis shows the Nasdaq Composite Index ending the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode with three (3 ) Accumulation days and two (2) Distribution days. Last week it also ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.)  The Dow (DIA) ended the week in Distribution mode while the S&P (SPY) ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode.
Momentum: At Friday 3/20 close we had six days of the CCI(20) daily above zero putting us in an uptrend by Woodie’s definition. This week the CCI(20) fell below zero, but because the trajectory upwards is clearly not as sharp as the immediately preceding downwards trajectory, we do not accept the zero line reject and await another opportunity –possibly downwards if the CCI(20) remains below zero for six consecutive days.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index has now been above zero for seven weeks, and began an up trend last week. The Daily CCI(20) began an uptrend eight weeks ago, but fell below zero this week without giving an acceptable ZLR (zero line reject) signal.
The CCI(20) now has 8 weeks above zero, two weeks into an upward change of trend. We continue to wait for the CCI(20) to enter the +/- 50 range for a ZLR entry point.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: Only the top three industries are positive, and all the bottom five are negative. Bullish: Banks (BKX) remain in the top five. Computer Tech (XCI) and Computer Hardware (HWI) have left the bottom five. Bearish:  Gold & Silver (XAU) leads the top five. Semis (SOX) and S&P Retail remain in the bottom five. REITs (DJR) and Disk Drives (DDX) have entered the bottom five.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

May 9, 2009

5-8-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 10:37 am
Subscriber email sent 5-9-09:

Market Breadth: With this week’s continued market rise, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio rose for the eighth time in nine weeks from 2.56 to 3.50, the highest value recorded since our tracking began over two years ago. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns increased by 10% to 1652. The count of Bearish stocks decreased by 13%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns increased by 19%. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market which continues to rise ever higher into bullish territory. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the seventeenth time in twenty-four weeks with a gain of 142 points. At +609, it continues above the October 2008 top, having broken the pattern of lower tops and bottoms since October 2008.
Volume Analysis shows the Nasdaq Composite Index ending the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode with five (5) Accumulation days and three (3) Distribution days. Last week it ended in Accumulation mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.)  Both the Dow (DIA) and the S&P (SPY) ended the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode.
Momentum: At Friday 3/20 close we had six days of the CCI(20) daily above zero putting us in an uptrend by Woodie’s definition. Again this week, we continue to wait for the CCI(20) to give a ZLR (Zero Line Reject) signal within the +/-50 range. The CCI(20) fell below +100 this week.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index has now been above zero for seven weeks, and began an up trend last week. The Daily CCI(20) began an uptrend seven weeks ago.
The CCI(20) now has 7 weeks above zero, one week into an upward change of trend. We continue to wait for the CCI(20) to enter the +/- 50 range for a ZLR entry point.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All the top five industries are positive, and only the lowest two of the bottom five are negative. Bullish: Banks (BKX) has left the bottom five and entered the top five. Bearish:  Semis (SOX), Computer Tech (XCI), Computer Hardware (HWI), and S&P Retail have all entered the bottom five with Semis the lowest of the group.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

May 3, 2009

5-1-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 2:20 pm
Subscriber email sent 5-3-09:

Market Breadth: With this week’s continued market rise, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio rose for the seventh time in 8 weeks from 2.08 to 2.56. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns decreased by 12% to 1498. The count of Bearish stocks decreased by 3%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns increased by 20%. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market which continues to rise higher into bullish territory. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the seventeenth time in twenty-four weeks with a gain of 115 points. At +468, it continues above the October 2008 top, and has broken the pattern of lower tops and bottoms since October 2008.
Volume Analysis shows the Nasdaq Composite Index ending the week in Accumulation with six (6) Accumulation days and two (2) Distribution days. Last week it also ended in Accumulation mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.)  The S&P (SPY) ended the week in Distribution mode while the Dow (DIA) again ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode.
Momentum: At Friday 3/20 close we had six days of the CCI(20) daily above zero putting us in an uptrend by Woodie’s definition. Again this week, we continue to wait for the CCI(20) to give a ZLR (Zero Line Reject) signal within the +/-50 range. The CCI(20) did not fall below +100 this week.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index has now been above zero for six weeks, therefore has begun an up trend this week. The Daily CCI(20) began an uptrend six weeks ago.
The CCI(20) now has 6 weeks above zero so we have a trend change to upwards. now we wait for the CCI(20) to enter the +/- 50 range for a ZLR entry point.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All the top five industries are positive, and only the lowest two of the bottom five are negative. Bullish: Networkers (NWX) remains in the top five. Disk Drives (DDX) has entered the top five. Oil (XOI) has left the top five.  Bearish:  Computer Hardware (HWI) has left the top five. Banks (BKX) remains in the bottom five. Oil Services (OSX) has entered the top five.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

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