Sand 2 Pirls Market Commentary a weekly technical stock market overview featuring our custom Bull/Bear P&F ratio

June 28, 2009

6-26-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 8:12 am
Subscriber email sent 6-28-09:

Market Breadth: With this week’s market decline, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio fell for the fifth time in fifteen weeks from 2.08 to 1.80. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns decreased by 6% to 1239. The count of Bearish stocks increased by 3%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns decreased by 10%. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market in bullish territory but experiencing notable volatility. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) decreased for the fifth time in fifteen weeks with a loss of 154 points. At +201, it continues above the October 2008 top, having broken the pattern of lower tops and bottoms since October 2008, but has now broken below the November 2006 high.
Volume Analysis shows the Nasdaq Composite Index ending the week in Accumulation mode with four (4) Accumulation days and two (2) Distributions days. Last week it also ended in Accumulation mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) The Dow (DIA) ended the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode while the S&P (SPY) ended the week in Distribution mode.
Momentum: At Friday 6/19 close we received a Zero Line Reject (ZLR) Long entry signal, but at Monday 6/22 close the CCI(20) dropped sharply below the ZLR point, giving an exit signal. The result of this Monday 6/22 open to Tuesday 6/23 open trade is a loss of 38.11 points on the Nasdaq Composite and a loss of $0.65 per share of QQQQ. We now await another ZLR Long entry signal or a change of trend if the CCI(20) drops below zero for 6 consecutive days.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index has now been above zero for thirteen weeks, and began an up trend eight weeks ago. The Daily CCI(20) began an uptrend fifteen weeks ago.
The CCI(20) now has 14 weeks above zero, eight weeks into an upward change of trend. We continue to wait for the CCI(20) to enter the +/- 50 range for a ZLR entry point.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All the top five industries are positive, and all the bottom five are negative. Bullish: Oil Services (OSX) leads the bottom five. Oil (XOI) has entered the bottom five. Computer Hardware (HWI) continues in the top five. REITs (DJR) have left the bottom five. Bearish: Gold & Silver (XAU) has left the bottom five.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged. © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

June 20, 2009

6-19-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 7:43 am
Subscriber email sent 6-20-09:

Market Breadth: With this week’s market decline, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio fell for the fourth time in fourteen weeks from 3.88 to 2.08. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns decreased by 22% to 1325. The count of Bearish stocks increased by 24%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns decreased by 34%. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market in bullish territory but experiencing notable volatility. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) decreased for the fourth time in fourteen weeks with a loss of 184 points. At +356, it continues above the October 2008 top, having broken the pattern of lower tops and bottoms since October 2008, and is hovering above the November 2006 high.
Volume Analysis shows the Nasdaq Composite Index ending the week in Accumulation mode with four (4) Accumulation days and three (3) Distributions days. Last week it ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.)  The Dow (DIA) ended the week in Distribution mode while the S&P (SPY) ended the week in Accumulation mode.
Momentum: At Friday 6/19 close we received a Zero Line Reject (ZLR) Long entry signal. We will follow this trade simulation in next week’s commentary.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index has now been above zero for twelve weeks, and began an up trend seven weeks ago. The Daily CCI(20) began an uptrend fourteen weeks ago.
The CCI(20) now has 12 weeks above zero, six weeks into an upward change of trend. We continue to wait for the CCI(20) to enter the +/- 50 range for a ZLR entry point.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All the top five industries are positive, and all the bottom five are negative. Bullish: Gold & Silver (XAU) remains in the bottom five. Oil Services (OSX) have entered the bottom five. Computer Hardware (HWI) is in the top five. Bearish: REITs (DJR) have entered and lead the bottom five.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

June 13, 2009

6-12-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 3:41 pm
Subscriber email sent 6-13-09:

Market Breadth: With this week’s market rise, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio fell for the third time in thirteen weeks from 4.21 to 3.88, our second highest recorded value. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns decreased by a fraction of a percent to 1692. The count of Bearish stocks decreased by 6%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns decreased by 2%. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market in bullish territory that has regained significant ground recently lost and is now at its second highest value since we began tracking it. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the tenth time in thirteen weeks with a gain of 15 points. At +540, it continues above the October 2008 top, having broken the pattern of lower tops and bottoms since October 2008.
Volume Analysis shows the Nasdaq Composite Index ending the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode with five (5) Accumulation days and one (1) Distributions day. Last week it also ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.)  Both the Dow (DIA) and the S&P (SPY) ended the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode.
Momentum: At Tuesday 5/26 close we received a Zero Line Reject (ZLR) Long entry signal . Last Wednesday 6/10, the CCI(20) dropped below +100 giving us our exit signal for Thursday morning’s open. The result of this trade simulation is a gain of 109.19 on the Nasdaq Composite or $2.07 per share of QQQQ.  Now we await for the CCI(20) to enter the +/-50 range for a possible Zero Line Reject Long entry signal.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index has now been above zero for eleven weeks, and began an up trend six weeks ago. The Daily CCI(20) began an uptrend thirteen weeks ago.
The CCI(20) now has 11 weeks above zero, five weeks into an upward change of trend. We continue to wait for the CCI(20) to enter the +/- 50 range for a ZLR entry point.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All the top three industries are positive, and all the bottom five are negative. Bullish: Gold & Silver (XAU) remains in the bottom five. Banks (BKX) have left the bottom five.  Oil Services (OSX) has left the top five.  Bearish: Computer Technology (OSX) and Internet Weekly (IIX) have left the top five. The Consumer Discretionary Spending Index (BPDISC) is the lowest of the bottom five.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

June 6, 2009

6-5-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 3:35 pm
Subscriber email sent 6-6-09:

Market Breadth: With this week’s market rise, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio rose for the tenth time in twelve weeks from 2.67 to 4.21, our highest recorded value. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns increased by 21% to 1697. The count of Bearish stocks decreased by 14%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns increased by 35%. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market in bullish territory that regained all the ground recently lost and is now at its highest value since we began tracking it. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the ninth time in twelve weeks with a gain of 119 points. At +525, it continues above the October 2008 top, having broken the pattern of lower tops and bottoms since October 2008.
Volume Analysis shows the Nasdaq Composite Index ending the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode with five (5) Accumulation days and one (1) Distributions day. Last week it ended in Accumulation mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.)  The Dow (DIA) ended the week in Accumulation mode while the S&P (SPY) ended in Distribution mode.
Momentum: At Tuesday 5/26 close we received a Zero Line Reject (ZLR) Long entry signal . We will follow this trade simulation in next weeks commentary.  The CCI(20) then rose over 100 and we await its drop below that level for our exit.  We will continue to follow this trade simulation in next weeks commentary.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index has now been above zero for nine weeks, and began an up trend three weeks ago. The Daily CCI(20) began an uptrend twelve weeks ago.
The CCI(20) now has 10 weeks above zero, four weeks into an upward change of trend. We continue to wait for the CCI(20) to enter the +/- 50 range for a ZLR entry point.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All the top three industries are positive, and all the bottom five are negative. Bullish: Gold & Silver (XAU) has left the top five and has entered the bottom five. Computer Technology (OSX) and Internet Weekly (IIX) have entered the top five. Bearish: Oil Services (OSX) leads the top five.  Semis (SOX) and Disk Drives (DDX) have left the top five. Banks (BKX) remain in the bottom five.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.  © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

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