Sand 2 Pirls Market Commentary a weekly technical stock market overview featuring our custom Bull/Bear P&F ratio

July 25, 2009

7-24-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 12:12 pm
Subscriber email sent 7-25-09:

Market Breadth: With this week’s market rise, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio rose from 2.27 to 4.15, our second highest value on record. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns increased by over 33% to 1556. The count of Bearish stocks decreased by 15%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns increased by 54%. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market continuing its rebounded back into bullish territory. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the twelfth time in nineteen weeks with a gain of 209 points. At +206, it continues above the October 2007 top, and other tops since then.
Volume Analysis is not available this week for unknown reasons. Last week the Nasdaq Composite Index ended the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode with three (3) Accumulation days and two (2) Distribution days. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.)
Momentum: At close on Tuesday 7/21, the CCI(20) had six days above zero, beginning an uptrend on the daily scale. Now we wait for the CCI(20) to enter the +/-50 range for a possible ZLR Long entry signal.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index has now been above zero for seventeen weeks, and began an up trend ten weeks ago. The Daily CCI(20) began an uptrend this week.
The CCI(20) now has seventeen weeks above zero, twelve weeks into an upward change of trend. Two weeks ago the CCI(20) reversed upward before entering the +/-50 range required for a ZLR entry point.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All the top and bottom industries are positive. Bullish: REITs (DJR) and Brokers (XBD) have left the bottom five.  Bearish: Semis (SOX) have left the top five. Oil Services (OSX) remains in the top five. Banks (BKX) leads the bottom five.  Computer Hardware (HWI) has entered the bottom five.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged. © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

July 18, 2009

7-17-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 11:38 am
Subscriber email sent 7-18-09:

Market Breadth: With this week’s market rise, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio rose from 0.94 to 2.27, back in bullish territory. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns decreased by over 3% to 1169. The count of Bearish stocks decreased by 43%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns increased by 39%. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market which has rebounded back into bullish territory. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the eleventh time in eighteen weeks with a gain of 74 points. At -3, it is now at the October 2007 top, and remains above the tops since then.
Volume Analysis shows the Nasdaq Composite Index ending the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode with three (3) Accumulation days and two (2) Distribution days. Last week it also ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Both the Dow (DIA) and S&P (SPY) ended the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode.
Momentum: At close on Friday 7/10, the CCI(20) had six days below zero, so a downtrend on the daily scale began. However, since then the CCI(20) has been advancing rapidly, has not given a Short entry signal, and as of Friday 7/17 has 4 days below zero. A trend change back to Long at Tuesday 7/21 looks likely.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index has now been above zero for seventeen weeks, and began an up trend ten weeks ago. The Daily CCI(20) began a downtrend one week ago.
The CCI(20) now has seventeen weeks above zero, eleven weeks into an upward change of trend. We continue to wait for the CCI(20) to enter the +/- 50 range for a ZLR entry point. Last week the CCI(20) reversed upward, going no lower than +52.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All the top industries are positive, and only the bottom-most is negative. Bullish: Semis (SOX) leads the top five. Bearish: REITs (DJR) leads the bottom five. Brokers (XBD) has entered the bottom five. Oil Services (OSX) has entered the top five. Gold & Silver (XAU) has left the bottom five. Disk Drives (DDX) have left the top five. Oil (XOI) has left the bottom five.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged. © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

July 11, 2009

7-10-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 5:08 pm
Subscriber email sent 7-11-09:

Market Breadth: With another week’s market decline, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio fell from 1.91 to 0.94, now in bearish territory. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns decreased by less than 2% to 1210. The count of Bearish stocks increased by 48%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns decreased by 27%. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market which has dropped back into bearish territory, but could rebound. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) decreased for the seventh time in seventeen weeks with a loss of 258 points. At -77, it has now broken below the October 2007 top, yet remains above the tops since then.
Volume Analysis shows the Nasdaq Composite Index ending the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode with three (3) Accumulation days and three (3) Distribution days. Last week it also ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) The Dow (DIA) ended the week in Distrbution mode while S&P (SPY) ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode.
Momentum: At close on Friday 7/10, the CCI(20) had six days below zero, so a downtrend on the daily scale begins. We now wait for the CCI(20) to enter +/- 50 range for a possible zero line reject Short entry signal.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index has now been above zero for sixteen weeks, and began an up trend ten weeks ago. The Daily CCI(20) began a downtrend this week.
The CCI(20) now has sixteen weeks above zero, ten weeks into an upward change of trend. We continue to wait for the CCI(20) to enter the +/- 50 range for a ZLR entry point. It is now at +53.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: Only the topmost industry is positive (barely), the rest are negative. Bullish: Gold & Silver (XAU) leads the bottom five. Semis (SOX) has entered the top five. Oil (XOI) is back in the bottom five. Disk Drives (DDX) remain in the top five. Bearish: Oil Services (OSX) has left the bottom five. Computer Hardware (HWI) has left the top five. REITs (DJR) has entered the bottom five.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged. © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

July 4, 2009

7-3-09 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 11:04 am

Subscriber email sent 7-4-09:

Market Breadth: With this week’s market decline, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio rose for the eleventh time in sixteen weeks from 1.80 to 1.91. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns decreased by less than 1% to 1229. The count of Bearish stocks decreased by 5%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns increased by 1%. The new format Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market beginning to stabilize in bullish territory. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) decreased for the sixth time in sixteen weeks with a loss of 20 points. At +181, it continues above the October 2008 top, having broken the pattern of lower tops and bottoms since October 2008, but now continues below the November 2006 high.
Volume Analysis shows the Nasdaq Composite Index ending the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode with three (3) Accumulation days and one (1) Distribution day. Last week it ended in Accumulation mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Both the Dow (DIA) and S&P (SPY) ended the week in Distribution mode.
Momentum: On Wednesday 7/1 there was a possible ZLR Long signal, however the CCI(20) was outside the +/-50 range, so we did not take it. At Thursday 7/3 close, the CCI(20) dropped below zero. We wait to see whether the trend will change or if the CCI(20) will resume upward momentum and give another Long entry signal.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index has now been above zero for fifteen weeks, and began an up trend nine weeks ago. The Daily CCI(20) began an uptrend sixteen weeks ago.
The CCI(20) now has fifteen weeks above zero, nine weeks into an upward change of trend. We continue to wait for the CCI(20) to enter the +/- 50 range for a ZLR entry point.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All the top five industries are positive, and all the bottom five are negative. Bullish: Oil Services (OSX) remains in the bottom five. Computer Hardware (HWI) continues in the top five. Disk Drives (DDX) has entered the top five. Bearish: Oil (XOI) has left the bottom five. Gold & Silver (XAU) has entered the top five.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged. © 2004 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

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