Sand 2 Pirls Market Commentary a weekly technical stock market overview featuring our custom Bull/Bear P&F ratio

May 31, 2010

5-28-10 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 9:28 am

Subscriber email sent 5-28-10:

Market Breadth: This week’s market decline put us back in Bear territory. Our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio rose from 0.43 to 0.56. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns decreased 10 percent to 951. The count of Bearish stocks decreased 18%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns increased by 7%. The Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market that appears less and less likely to rebound quickly into Bullish territory. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) lost 276 points. At -522, it continues below 2008 and 2009 tops.
This week the Nasdaq Composite Index ended the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode with zero (0) Accumulation days and six (6) Distribution days in the last two weeks. Last week it also ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while Distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, the DOW (DIA) ended the week in Distribution mode while the S&P (SPY) ended in neith Accumulation nor Distribution mode.
Momentum: At Tuesday 5/11 close, we had 6 days of CCI(20) below zero, so began a Woodie’s down trend. At Thursday 5/13 close we received a possible ZLR (Zero Line Reject) Short entry signal, however, the slow out was less than the slope in, so we did not take the trade, and we have not had a possible signal since. The CCI(20) is currently -55.10, outside the +/-50 range required for a ZLR signal.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index has been in an uptrend for fifty-five weeks. The Daily CCI(20) began a down trend two weeks ago.
Two weeks ago we had a ZLR Long entry signal for entry at Monday 5/17 open. On Friday 5/21 we had an exit signal for Monday 5/24 open when the CCI(20) fell below the pivot point. The results of this trade simulation was a loss of 132.17 points on the Nasdaq or $2.20 per share of QQQQ. We now have two weeks of the CCI(20) below zero with the CCI(20) at -66.99.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: Only one of the top five industries is positive and all other industries are negative. Bullish: Oil Services (OSX) remains in the bottom five. Semis (SOX) has entered the top five. REITs (DJR) have left the bottom five.  Bearish: Banks (BKX) remain in the bottom five. Comp Tech (XCI) has entered the bottom five.
Focus this week: Deflation here we come — not hyperinflation as some are saying. Click the graphic to read the ShadowStats article on the money supply.

Subscribe directly to Sand 2 Pirls Market Commentary directly here (free).

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.
© 2010 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

May 22, 2010

5-21-10 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 11:12 am

Subscriber email sent 5-22-10:

Market Breadth: This week’s market decline put us back in Bear territory. Our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio fell 1.39 to 0.43. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns increased 21 percent to 1061. The count of Bearish stocks increased 103%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns decreased by 37%. The Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market that appears less and less likely to rebound quickly into Bullish territory. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) lost 382 points. At -246, it continues below 2009 tops, and has now broken below 2008 tops.
This week the Nasdaq Composite Index ended the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode with zero (0) Accumulation days and five (5) Distribution days in the last two weeks. Last week it ended in Distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while Distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, both the DOW (DIA) and the S&P (SPY) ended the week in Accumulation mode.
Momentum: At Tuesday 5/11 close, we had 6 days of CCI(20) below zero, so began a Woodie’s down trend. At Thursday 5/13 close we received a possible ZLR (Zero Line Reject) Short entry signal, however, the slow out was less than the slope in, so we did not take the trade, and we have not had a possible signal since.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index has been in an uptrend for fifty-four weeks. The Daily CCI(20) began a down trend one week ago week.
This week gave us a ZLR Long entry signal for entry at Monday 5/17 open. On Friday 5/21 we got an exit signal for Monday 5/24 open when the CCI(20) fell below the pivot point. We will present the results of this trade in next week’s commentary.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All of the top five adn bottom industries are negative. Bullish: Gold and Silver (XAU), Gold ($GOLD), and GSCI Precious Metals (GPX) have left in the top five. Bearish: Oil Services (OSX) remains in the bottom five. Banks (BKX) and REITs (DJR) have entered the bottom five.
Focus this week: A 2 percent 3 box reversal point and figure chart of Silver shows us it headed down short term. If it enters the $16 per ounce range, that would appear to be be a good buying opportunity.

Subscribe directly to Sand 2 Pirls Market Commentary directly here (free).

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.
© 2010 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

May 15, 2010

5-14-10 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 5:30 pm


Subscriber email sent 5-15-10:

Market Breadth: This week’s market rise put us back in Bull territory. Our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio rose 0.83 to 1.39, from Bear back into Bull territory. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns decreased 6 percent to 874. The count of Bearish stocks decreased 28%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns increased by 20%. The Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market that has rebounded slightly from a large bearish drop. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) lost 170 points. At +135, it continues below 2009 tops, yet still above 2008 tops.
This week the Nasdaq Composite Index ended the week in Distribution mode with zero (0) Accumulation days and four (4) Distribution days in the last two weeks. Last week it ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while Distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, the DOW (DIA) ended the week in Distribution mode while the S&P (SPY) ended the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode.
Momentum: At Tuesday 5/11 close, we had 6 days of CCI(20) below zero, so began a Woodie’s down trend. At Thursday 5/13 close we received a possible ZLR (Zero Line Reject) Short entry signal, however, the slow out was less than the slope in, so we do not take the trade.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index has been in an uptrend for fifty-three weeks. The Daily CCI(20) began a down trend this week.
Ten weeks ago the weekly CCI(20) gave us a ZLR Long entry signal. The next week, the CCI(20) fell, but not as sharply as the rise the previous week in which we entered the trade, so we stayed in. A week ago, the CCI(20) fell below +100 so we exited the trade at Monday 5/10 open. The trade result was a gain of 165.59 points on the Nasdaq Composite index or $3.35 per share of QQQQ.
This week gave us a ZLR Long entry signal for entry at Monday 5/17 open. We will follow this trade in next week’s commentary.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All of the top five industries are positive, and all the bottom five are negative. Bullish: Disk Drives (DDX) and Semis (SOX) have left the bottom five. Bearish: Gold and Silver (XAU) continues in the top five, Gold ($GOLD) and GSCI Precious Metals (GPX) have entered the top five. Oil Services (OSX) has entered the bottom five.  
Focus this week: Here are several non MSM interviews dealing with last week’s market plunge.

Subscribe directly to Sand 2 Pirls Market Commentary directly here (free).

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.
© 2010 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

May 9, 2010

5-7-10 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 5:28 pm

Subscriber email sent 5-9-10:

Market Breadth: This week’s sharp market decline gave us the largest shift (measured on the logarithmic scale) of our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio to date as it fell from 5.53 to 0.83, now in Bear territory. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns decreased 52 percent to 932. The count of Bearish stocks increased 70%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns decreased by 74%. The Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market that has quickly gone from very bullish, to bearish. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) lost 312 points. At +306, it is now below 2009 tops, yet still above 2008 tops.
This week the Nasdaq Composite Index ended the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode with one (1) Accumulation day and three (3) Distribution days in the last two weeks. Last week it also ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, the DOW (DIA) ended the week in Distribution mode while the S&P (SPY) ended the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode.
Momentum: The week before last, the CCI(20) to dropped into the +/- 50 range and at Thursday 4/29 close gave a zero line reject (ZLR) Long signal. But the following day it reversed, giving us an exit signal for Monday 5/3 open from the trade. The result was a loss of 37.67 points on the Nasdaq Composite Index or $0.76 per share of QQQQ.
Mon 5/3 close gave us another ZLR, but with the andgle in greater than the angle out of the pivot point, so we do not take the trade. Using Woodie’s rules, two more days of the CCI(20) below zero are required for a change on trend from up to down. If we took counter-trend trades, this would be an entry point for a Woodie’s HFE (Hook From Extremes) short trade.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index has been in an uptrend for fifty-two weeks. The Daily CCI(20) began an up trend ten weeks ago.
Nine weeks ago the weekly CCI(20) gave us a ZLR Long entry signal. The next week, the CCI(20) fell, but not as sharply as the rise the previous week in which we entered the trade, so we stayed in. This week the CCI(20) fell below +100 so we exit the trade at Monday 5/10 open. We will report the result of this trade simulation in next week’s commentary.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All of the top and bottom five industries are negative. Bullish: None. Bearish: Gold and Silver (XAU) continues to lead the top five. Oil Services (OSX) has entered the bottom five. Disk Drives (DDX) and Semis (SOX) remain in the bottom five. 
Focus this week: A picture is worth a thousand words. Maybe its time to start over.

Subscribe directly to Sand 2 Pirls Market Commentary directly here (free).

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.
© 2010 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

May 2, 2010

4-30-10 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 8:25 am


Subscriber email sent 5-2-10:

Market Breadth: With this week’s market rise, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio fell from 7.17 to 5.53. The total count of securities in Bullish or Bearish patterns decreased 7 percent to 2083. The count of Bearish stocks increased 17%, while the count of stocks in Bullish patterns decreased by 10%. The Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market losing some of its bullish strength, and perhaps hitting a sell off point or pull-back. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) decreased for the second time in eleven weeks with a drop of 7 points. At +617, it is near the 2010 top and continues above all 2008 and 2009 tops.
This week the Nasdaq Composite Index ended the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode with three (3) Accumulation days and two (2) Distribution days in the last two weeks. Last week it also ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, both the DOW (DIA) and the S&P (SPY) ended the week in Distribution mode.
Momentum: Last week the CCI(20) to dropped into the +/- 50 range and at Thursday 4/29 close gave a zero line reject (ZLR) Long signal. But the following day reversed, giving us and exit signal for Monday 5/3 open from the trade.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index has been in an uptrend for fifty-one weeks. The Daily CCI(20) began an up trend nine weeks ago.
Nine weeks ago the weekly CCI(20) gave us a ZLR Long entry signal. The next week, the CCI(20) fell, but not as sharply as the rise the previous week in which we entered the trade, so we stayed in. last week the CCI(20) fell, but remains above 100 so we continue to stay in the trade. We will continue to follow this trade simulation in next week’s commentary.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All of the top five industries are positive, and all the bottom five are negative. Bullish:  REITs and Banks (BKX) have entered the top five. Oil Services (OSX) has left the top five. Bearish: Gold and Silver (XAU) leads the top five. Disk Drives (DDX), Semis (SOX), and S&P Retail (RLX) have left the top five, and Semis (SOX) has entered the bottom five. 
Focus this week: A two percent 3 box reversal point and figure chart of continuous contract GOLD shows formation of a pennant which we expect to break out to the upside as it approaches 60-70% completion.

Subscribe directly to Sand 2 Pirls Market Commentary directly here (free).

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.
© 2010 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

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