Sand 2 Pirls Market Commentary a weekly technical stock market overview featuring our custom Bull/Bear P&F ratio

July 31, 2010

7-30-10 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 5:31 pm

Subscriber email sent 7-31-10:

Market Breadth: With this week’s fractional decline, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio rose from 0.86 to 1.43, advancing into bullish territory. The total count of securities in bullish or bearish patterns decreased 3% to 1251. The count of bearish stocks decreased 30%, while the count of stocks in bullish patterns increased by 33%. The Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market entering bullish territory. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the fourth time in the last fourteen weeks, gaining 247 points. At -338, it continues below 2008 and 2009 tops, but has now broken above the February 2010 and November 2009 bottoms.
This week the Nasdaq Composite Index ended the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode with three (3) Accumulation days and three (3) Distribution days in the last two weeks. The previous week ended in Accumulation mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while Distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, the S&P (SPY) ended the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode, while the DOW (DIA) ended in Accumulation mode.
Momentum: with the CCI(20) giving a ZLR (Zero Line Reject) Long entry signal within the +/-50 range, we entered a Long trade at Wednesday 7/19 open. Our exit signal came at close on Wednesday 7/28 when the CCI(20) dropped back below +100. The result of this trade was a gain of 93.26 points on the Nasdaq Composite or $1.83 per share of QQQQ.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a downtrend three weeks ago. The Daily CCI(20) an up trend a week ago.
With the CCI(20) within the +/-50 range, we anticipate a possible ZLR reject Short entry signal if the market declines next week.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All of the top five industries are positive, and all the bottom-most are negative. Bullish: REITs (DJR) has enered teh top five. Banks (BKX) have left the bottom five. Bearish: DiskDrives (DDX), Semis (SOX), and Compuer Hardware (HWI), and Networkers (NWX) have entered the bottom five. Networkers (NWX) and Internet-IW (IIX) have left the top five. Gold & Silver (XAU) has left the bottom five. 

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–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.
© 2010 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

July 25, 2010

7-23-10 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 3:34 pm

Subscriber email sent 7-25-10:

Market Breadth: With this week’s market rise, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio incresed from 0.57 to 0.86, still in bearish territory, but close to bullish. The total count of securities in bullish or bearish patterns increased 9% to 1289. The count of bearish stocks decreased 8%, while the count of stocks in bullish patterns increased by 40%. The Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market in bearish territory but approaching bullish. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the third time in the last twelve weeks, gaining 111 points. At -585, it continues below 2008 and 2009 tops.
This week the Nasdaq Composite Index ended the week in Accumulation mode with five (5) Accumulation days and two (2) Distribution days in the last two weeks. The previous week ended in Distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while Distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, both the S&P (SPY) and the DOW (DIA) ended the week in neither Accumulation mode.
Momentum: At Wednesday 6/20 close, the CCI(20) had registered 6 days below zero beginning a Woodie’s down trend. At Thursday 7/15 close, we had a ZLR (Zero Line Reject) Short entry signal within the +/-50 range. On Monday 7/19 close we had an exit signal when the CCI(20) leveled off. The result of this trade was a gain of 66.36 points on the Nasdaq Composite or $1.44 per share of QQQQ. At Tuesday 7/18 close we have 6 days of the CCI(20) above zero and a ZLR Long entry. The CCI(20) increased for the next two days. We will continue to follow the results of this trade in next week’s commentary.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a downtrend two weeks ago. The Daily CCI(20) began a down trend two weeks ago and began an uptrend this week.
On Friday 6/25 we had six weeks of the CCI(20) below zero with the CCI(20) giving a ZLR (Zero Line Reject) short entry signal. The CCI(20) broke above -100 this week, so we exited the trade at Monday 7/19 open. The result was a gain of 41.62 points on the Nasdaq Composite or $0.80 per share of QQQQ.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All of the top five industries are positive, and all the bottom five are negative. Bullish: Networkers (NWX) and Internet-IW (IIX) has entered the top five. Gold & Silver (XAU) remains in the bottom five. Oil (XOI) has left the top five and S&P Retail (RLX) has left the bottom five. Bearish: Banks (BKX) leads the bottom five. DiskDrives (DDX) has left the top five. 

Subscribe directly to Sand 2 Pirls Market Commentary directly here (free).

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.
© 2010 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

July 17, 2010

7-16-10 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 2:12 pm

Subscriber email sent 7-17-10:

Market Breadth: With this week’s fractional decline, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio rose from 0.36 to 0.57, still in bearish territory. The total count of securities in bullish or bearish patterns decreased 10% to 1178. The count of bearish stocks decreased 22%, while the count of stocks in bullish patterns increased by 22%. The Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market remaining in bearish territory. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the second time in the last eleven weeks, gaining 106 points. At -696, it continues below 2008 and 2009 tops.
This week the Nasdaq Composite Index ended the week in Distribution mode with three (3) Accumulation days and two (2) Distribution days in the last two weeks. The previous week ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while Distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, the S&P (SPY) ended the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode, while the DOW (DIA) ended in Distribution mode.
Momentum: At Wednesday 6/20 close, the CCI(20) had registered 6 days below zero beginning a Woodie’s down trend. At Thursday 7/15 close, we had a ZLR (Zero Line Reject) Short entry signal within the +/-50 range. We will follow the results of this trade simulation in next week’s commentary.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a downtrend a week ago week. The Daily CCI(20) a down trend a week ago.
On Friday 6/25 we had six weeks of the CCI(20) below zero with the CCI(20) giving a ZLR (Zero Line Reject) short entry signal. The CCI(20) broke above -100 this week, so we exit the trade at Monday 7/19 open. We will report the results of this trade simulation in next week’s commentary.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All of the top five industries are positive, and only the bottom-most of the bottom five is negative. Bullish: DiskDrives (DDX) has entered the top five. Gold & Silver (XAU) remains in the bottom five. Oil Services (OSX) has left the top five Bearish: Oil (XOI) remains in the top five and S&P Retail (RLX) remains in the bottom five.

Subscribe directly to Sand 2 Pirls Market Commentary directly here (free).

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.
© 2010 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

July 11, 2010

7-9-10 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 7:48 am

Subscriber email sent 7-11-10:

Market Breadth: With this week’s market rise, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio rose from 0.27 to 0.36, still in strongly bearish territory. The total count of securities in bullish or bearish patterns decreased 10% to 1312. The count of bearish stocks decreased 16%, while the count of stocks in bullish patterns increased by 14%. The Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market remaining in bearish territory. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) decreased for nine of the last ten weeks, losing 37 points. At -802, it continues below 2008 and 2009 tops.
This week the Nasdaq Composite Index ended the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode with two (2) Accumulation days and two (2) Distribution days in the last two weeks. The previous week also ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while Distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, the S&P (SPY) ended the week in Accumulation mode, while the DOW (DIA) ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode.
Momentum: At Wednesday 6/20 close, the CCI(20) had registered 6 days below zero beginning a Woodie’s down trend. With the CCI(20) at -25.59, we now await a Short entry signal.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a downtrend a week ago week. The Daily CCI(20) a down trend a week ago.
On Friday 6/25 we had six weeks of the CCI(20) below zero with the CCI(20) giving a ZLR (Zero Line Reject) short entry signal. The CCI(20) rose this week, but remains below -100, so we stay in the trade. We will continue to follow the results of this trade simulation in next week’s commentary.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All of the top five industries are positive, and all the bottom five are negative. Bullish: Gold & Silver (XAU) has left the top five and entered the bottom five. REITs (DJR) have left the bottom five. Bearish: Oil Services (OSX) and Oil (XOI) lead the top five. S&P Retail (RLX) has entered the bottom five.
Focus this week: Has the market bottomed and is it now headed back up or are we seeing a short bear market rally before the market resumes its downward course? One way to answer that question is to use a contrarian market sentiment indicators such as Market Harmonics Nasdaq Sentiment Indicator. It does appear that high bearish sentiment within the last few weeks was a contrary indicator for the current market rise. Although sentiment is now only slightly bearish, we note that in the past, bearish sentiment as strong as it was recently has tended to rise to significantly bullish before reversing and giving indication of a market top.

Subscribe directly to Sand 2 Pirls Market Commentary directly here (free).

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.
© 2010 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

July 5, 2010

7-2-10 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 7:40 am

Subscriber email sent 7-5-10:

Market Breadth: With this week’s market decline, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio fell from 0.71 to 0.27, into strongly bearish territory. The total count of securities in bullish or bearish patterns increased 43% to 1460. The count of bearish stocks in increased 93%, while the count of stocks in bullish patterns decreased by 28%. The Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market back in bearish territory. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) decreased for eight of the last nine weeks, losing 211 points. At -764, it continues below 2008 and 2009 tops.
This week the Nasdaq Composite Index ended the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode with two (2) Accumulation days and two (2) Distribution days in the last two weeks. The previous week Volume Analysis was not available. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while Distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, both the DOW (DIA) and the S&P (SPY) ended the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode.
Momentum: On Monday 6/21 we had 6 days of the CCI(20) over zero, beginning a Woodie’s up trend. But by Wednesday 6/20 without a Long trade signal, the CCI(20) had registered 6 days below zero. So, we now await a Short entry signal.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a downtrend last week. The Daily CCI(20) began an up trend last week and a down trend this week.
On Friday 6/25 we had six weeks of the CCI(20) below zero with the CCI(20) giving a ZLR (Zero Line Reject) short entry signal. The CCI(20) continued downwards this week. We will continue to follow the results of this trade simulation in next week’s commentary.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All of the top and bottom five industries are negative. Bullish: Gold & Silver (XAU) has entered the top five. S&P Retail (RLX) has left the bottom five. Bearish: Disk Drives (DDX) and Semis (SOX) have left the top five. REITs (DJR) have entered the bottom five.  
Focus this week: We view Point and Figure (PnF) charts as a important confirmation of market direction using a 2% 3 box reversal setting. This week a 2% 3 box reversal PnF chart of the Nasdaq Composite Index gave a Triple Bottom Breakdown pattern. This doesn’t mean that the market can’t or wont reverse, in fact a bounce from last week’s drop seems likely. But is does make a quick re-establishment of an upward trend less likely than continuation of the current downward move.

Subscribe directly to Sand 2 Pirls Market Commentary directly here (free).

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.
© 2010 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [ Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

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