Sand 2 Pirls Market Commentary a weekly technical stock market overview featuring our custom Bull/Bear P&F ratio

September 25, 2010

9-24-10 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 12:10 pm


Subscriber email sent 9-25-10:

Market Breadth: With this week’s market rise, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio rose from 1.81 to 2.38, further into bullish territory. The total count of securities in bullish or bearish patterns rose 7% to 1558. The count of bearish stocks decreased 11%, while the count of stocks in bullish patterns increased by 18%. The Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market advancing into bullish territory. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the ninth time in the last twenty-two weeks, rising 150 points. At +7, it has remains above the November 2009 bottom and the February 2010 bottom, and has now broken above the 2008 tops.
This week’s volume analysis was not available for unspecified resons. The previous week ended in Accumulation mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while Distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.)
Momentum: At Friday 9/10 close, the CCI(20) had 6 days with the CCI(20) above zero. We continue to wait for the CCI(20) to return to the +/-50 range for a ZLR (Zero Line Reject) Long Entry signal.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a downtrend ten weeks ago, but this week and last were above zero. The Daily CCI(20) began a Woodie’s uptrend two weeks ago.
We now have two weeks of the weekly CCI(20) above zero. We are outside the +/-50 range for a ZLR (Zero Line Reject) and we need 6 weeks for a change of trend in Woodie’s CCI system.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All of the top five industries are positive, and only three of the bottom five are negative. Bullish: Semis (SOX), Networkers (NWX), and Computer Hardware (HWI) have entered the top five. Bearish: Banks (BKX) has entered the bottom five. Gold and Silver ($XAU) has entered the top five. Brokers (XBD) and REITs (DJR) remain in the bottom five. Computer Tech (XCI) has left the top five.

Focus this week: “Weakening the dollar wouldn’t be a bad policy for fighting deflation in a perfectly balanced world. But the problem is that everybody else is worried about a loss of competitiveness and wants to debase their currencies too. Japan is not the only one.” from Dollar Drops, Gold Soars Following Federal Reserve Meeting by Barry Grey

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–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.
© 2010 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

September 18, 2010

9-17-10 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 12:57 pm

Subscriber email sent 9-18-10:

Market Breadth: With this week’s fractional market rise, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio rose from 1.21 to 1.81, further into bullish territory. The total count of securities in bullish or bearish patterns rose  5% to 1451. The count of bearish stocks decreased 17%, while the count of stocks in bullish patterns increased by 23%. The Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market advancing into bullish territory. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the eighth time in the last twenty-one weeks, rising 237 points. At -143, it has now risen above the November 2009 bottom and remains above the February 2010 bottom, but continues below all 2008 tops.
This week the Nasdaq Composite Index ended the week in Accumulation mode with four (4) Accumulation days and one (1) Distribution day in the last two weeks. The previous week ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while Distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, the DOW (DIA) ended the week in Distribution mode while the S&P (SPY) ended the week in Accumulation mode.
Momentum: At Friday 9/10 close, the CCI(20) had 6 days with the CCI(20) above zero. We continue to wait for the CCI(20) to return to the +/-50 range for a ZLR (Zero Line Reject) Long Entry signal.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a downtrend nine weeks ago, but this week was above zero for the first time. The Daily CCI(20) began a Woodie’s uptrend one week ago.
We now have one week of the weekly CCI(20) above zero. We are outside teh +/-50 range for a ZLR (Zero Line Reject) and we need 6 weeks for a change of trend in Woodie’s CCI system.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All of the top five industries are positive, and all the bottom five are negative. Bullish: Computer Tech (XCI) leads the top five. Semis (SOX) has left the bottom five. Networkers (NWX) has left the bottom five. Oil Services (OSX) has left the top five. Oil (XOI) has entered the bottom five. Bearish: Banks (BKX) has left the top five. Gold and Silver ($XAU) has left the bottom five. Brokers (XBD) remains in the bottom five. REITs (DJR) has entered the bottom five.

Focus this week: Gold price suppression extends the life of the system under the present political order. To better understand the intertwined political and economic orders, read the September 6 Personal Liberty Digest blog by Bob Livingston titled “Perception of Reality: It’s Not What It Is, It’s What We Think It Is”.

Subscribe to Sand 2 Pirls Market Commentary directly here (free).

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.
© 2010 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

September 11, 2010

9-10-10 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 2:33 pm

Subscriber email sent 9-11-10:

Market Breadth: With this week’s fractional market rise, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio rose from 1.07 to 1.21, further into bullish territory. The total count of securities in bullish or bearish patterns was virtually unchanged at 1384. The count of bearish stocks decreased 7%, while the count of stocks in bullish patterns increased by 6%. The Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market moving back into bullish territory. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the seventh time in the last twenty weeks, rising 141 points. At -380, it hs risen above the February 2010 bottom, but remains below all 2008 tops and the November 2009 bottom.
This week the Nasdaq Composite Index ended the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode with three (3) Accumulation days and two (2) Distribution days in the last two weeks. The previous week also ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while Distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, both the DOW (DIA) and the S&P (SPY) ended the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode.
Momentum: The CCI(20) had 6 days with the CCI(20) above zero at Friday 9/10 close. We now wait for the CCI(20) to return to the +/-50 range for a ZLR (Zero Line Reject) Long Entry signal.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a downtrend eight weeks ago. The Daily CCI(20) began a Woodie’s uptrend at the end of the week.
Entry for the weekly chart ZLR Short signal was at Monday 8/16 open. Last week the CCI(20) rose after hitting -100 the week prior. We exited the trade at Tuesday 9/7 open for a loss of 65.95 points on the Nasdaq or $1.32 per share of QQQQ.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All of the top five and bottom five industries are positive. Bullish: Banks (BKX) has entered the top five. Gold and Silver ($XAU) has entered the bottom five. Computer Tech (XCI) and Brokers (XBD) have left the bottom five. Bearish: Semis (SOX) continues to lead the bottom five. Networkers (NWX) has entered the bottom five. REITs (DJR) has left the top five. Oil Services (OSX) has entered the top five.

Focus this week: As the 2 percent 3 box reversal point and figure chart of the Semiconductor Index (SOX) below shows, the SOX will need to show a lot more strength than it does now in order for the current rally to be sustained for more than a few weeks.

Subscribe to Sand 2 Pirls Market Commentary directly here (free).

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.
© 2010 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

September 5, 2010

9-3-10 Market Commentary

Filed under: Market Commentary — dlpirl @ 4:37 pm

Subscriber email sent 9-5-10:

Market Breadth: With this week’s sharp market rise, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio rose from 0.62 to 1.07, over the 1.0 threshold back into bullish territory. The total count of securities in bullish or bearish patterns decreased 2% to 1388. The count of bearish stocks decreased 24%, while the count of stocks in bullish patterns increased by 32%. The Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market jumping back into bullish territory. Paid subscribers have access to the Excel data from which the image to the left is built.

The well known market breadth indicator, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index (NASI) increased for the sixth time in the last nineteen weeks, rising 51 points. At -521, it continues below the February 2010 bottom, below all 2008 tops and the November 2009 bottom.
This week the Nasdaq Composite Index ended the week in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode with two (2) Accumulation days and two (2) Distribution days in the last two weeks. The previous week ended in Accumulation mode. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while Distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Of the other indexes, the DOW (DIA) ended the week in Accumulation mode while the S&P (SPY) ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode.
Momentum: The CCI(20) shot upwards thsi week from -100 to nearlt +100. We have two days with the CCI(20) above zero. With 4 more consecutively, we will have a change of trend –as defined by Woodie’s CCI trading system– at Thursday 9/8 close.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The weekly CCI(20) of the Nasdaq Composite Index began a downtrend seven weeks ago. The Daily CCI(20) began a Woodie’s downtrend two weeks ago, but appears ready to shift to an uptrend.
Entry for the weekly chart ZLR Short signal was at Monday 8/16 open. This week the CCI(20) rose after hitting -100 the week prior. We exit the trade at Monday 9/6 open and will report the results in next week’s commentary.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All of the top five and bottom five industries are positive. Bullish: REITs (DJR) has entered and leads the top five. Banks (BKX) has left the bottom five.  Bearish: Semis (SOX) has entered and leads the bottom five. Oil (XOI) has left the bottom five. Networkers (NWX) has left the top five. Gold and Silver ($XAU) remains in the top five. Computer Tech (XCI) and Brokers (XBD) are in the bottom five.

Focus this week: It turns out that the Hindenburg Omen signal may not have been triggered at all, because the new highs and new lows were not stocks, but various closed-end specialty funds. Read Market Analysts Say: False Hindenburg Omen Signal by Elizabeth MacDonald to learn more.

Subscribe to Sand 2 Pirls Market Commentary directly here (free).

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.
© 2010 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [Terms and Conditions/Disclaimer ]

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