2-12-17 Market Commentary

 

 

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Market Breadth
: With this past week’s market advance, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio at 1.72 rose slightly from 1.66 last week, continuing within bullish territory. The total count of securities in bullish or bearish patterns decreased 1% to 3106. The count of bearish stocks decreased 3%, while the count of stocks in bullish patterns decreased fractionally. The Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market now thirteen weeks in bullish territory. Paid subscribers have access to the OpenOffice Calc data from which the chart is generated.

The well known market breadth indicator, the NASDAQ McClellan Summation Index (NASI) fell 11 points for the sixth decline in thirteen weeks. At a positive 188.06   points, it has fallen below the the November 2014 top, continues below the March 2015 top, the December 2016, April 2016, May 2016, and August 2016 tops, continues above the September 2014 top above +100, and it continues above all five bottoms below -100 in the last 3 years. 


Volume Analysis:
In this week’s volume analysis, the NASDAQ Composite Index ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode with average daily volume lower than the prior week. In the last two weeks the NASDAQ had four (4) Accumulation days and one (1) Distribution day. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while Distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Last week the NASDAQ ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode on higher average daily volume.


Momentum
: Now at +145.52 up from +114.23 last week, we wait for the CCI(20) daily to return to the +/- 50 zone for a new trade.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The Weekly CCI(20) of the NASDAQ Composite Index began a Woodie’s up trend forty-one weeks ago, while the Daily CCI(20) began a Woodie’s up trend twelve weeks ago.
The CCI(20) weekly has risen to +156.90 from +145.03 last week. We await the return of the CCI(20) weekly to the +/-50 range for another trade.

Industry Rotation the last two weeks:
All of the top five industries are  positive and only two of the bottom five are negative. Summary:  Gold & Silver, some Tech and Brokers on top; Oil and some Tech on the bottom. Bullish: Brokers and  Computer Hardware continue in the top five. Networkers has entered the top five. Oil continues in the bottom five. REITs has left the bottom five.  Bearish: Semis PHLX, and Disk Drives have left the top five. Oil Services has left the bottom five. Semis PHLX has entered the bottom five.

Focus this week: From www.zerohedge.com “Jim Rogers: “We’re About To Have The Worst Economic Problems Of A Lifetime, A Lot Of People Will Disappear”“. 

The following are a few pertinent excerpts.

  …get prepared because we’re going to have the worst economic problems we’ve had in your lifetime or my lifetime and when that happens a lot of people are going to disappear.

In 2008 Bear Stearns disappeared, Bear Stearns had been around over 90 years. Lehman Brothers disappeared. Lehman Brothers had been around over 150 years. A long, long time, a long glorious history they’ve been through wars, depression, civil war they’ve been through everything and yet they disappear.

So the next time around it’s going to be worse than anything we’ve seen and a lot of institutions, people, companies even countries, certainly governments and maybe even countries are going to disappear. I hope you get very worried.

when you start having bear markets as you I’m sure well know one bad thing happens and another bad thing happens and these things snowball just like in bull markets good news comes out then more good news comes out the next thing you know you’re five or six or seven years into a bull market.

Well bear markets do the same thing and so we have a lot of bad news on the horizon. I haven’t even gotten to war. I haven’t even gotten to trade war or anything like that but you know things do go wrong.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com


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