2-26-17 Market Commentary

 

 

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Market Breadth
: With this past week’s market advance, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio at 1.57 down from 1.78 last week, continues within bullish territory. The total count of securities in bullish or bearish patterns decreased fractionally to 3199. The count of bearish stocks increased 8%, while the count of stocks in bullish patterns decreased 5%. The Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market now fifteen weeks in bullish territory. Paid subscribers have access to the OpenOffice Calc data from which the chart is generated.

The well known market breadth indicator, the NASDAQ McClellan Summation Index (NASI) rose 29 points for the ninth advance in fifteen weeks. At a positive 354.19 points, it continues above the the November 2014 top, and the March 2015 top, but continues below the December 2016, April 2016, May 2016, and August 2016 tops above +100, and it continues above all five bottoms below -100 in the last 3 years. 


Volume Analysis:
In this week’s volume analysis, the NASDAQ Composite Index ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode with average daily volume lower than the prior week. In the last two weeks the NASDAQ had three (3) Accumulation days and one (1) Distribution day. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while Distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Last week the NASDAQ ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode on higher average daily volume.


Momentum
: Now at +84.3, down from +149.62 last week, we wait for the CCI(20) daily to return to the +/- 50 zone for a new trade.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The Weekly CCI(20) of the NASDAQ Composite Index began a Woodie’s up trend forty-three weeks ago, while the Daily CCI(20) began a Woodie’s up trend fourteen weeks ago.
The CCI(20) weekly has fallen to +158.17 from +172.97 last week. We await the return of the CCI(20) weekly to the +/-50 range for another trade.

Industry Rotation the last two weeks:
All of the top five industries are  positive and all of the bottom five are negative. Summary: Some Tech and Banking on top, Gold & Silver, Oil, and Oil Services on the bottom. Bullish: KBW Bank continues in the top five. Gold & Silver PHLX continues in the bottom five. Oil and Oil Services continue in the bottom five. Bearish: S&P Retail and Computer Hardware have left the top five.
Focus this week: From www.realinvestmentadvice.comVisualizing 10-Reasons For Caution 02-24-17“. We advise reviewing the article and all 10 charts, but the message in a nutshell is the following…

  • …“record levels” of anything are records for a reason. It is where the point where previous limits were reached. Therefore, when a ‘record level’ is reached, it is NOT THE BEGINNING, but rather an indication of the MATURITY of a cycle. While the media has focused on employment, record stock market levels, etc. as a sign of an ongoing economic recovery, history suggests caution.

–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com


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