2-25-18 Market Commentary


Sand 2 Pirls Market Commentary Subscriber email:

Market Breadth: With this past week’s market advance, our Bull/Bear Point and Figure Ratio at 0.81 rose from 0.77 last week, advancing, but still within bearish territory. The total count of securities in bullish or bearish patterns decreased 2% to 2617. The count of bearish stocks decreased 4%, while the count of stocks in bullish patterns increased 1%. The Sand 2 Pirls P&F Market Breadth Summary Chart shows us a market now four weeks in bearish territory. Paid subscribers have access to the OpenOffice Calc data from which the chart is generated.

The well known market breadth indicator, the NASDAQ McClellan Summation Index (NASI) rose 54n points for the eighth advance in 19 weeks. At a negative 83.55 points, it continues below all eight tops in the last 30 months, has risen above the April 2017 bottom and continues above all five remaining bottoms below -100 in the last 30 months. 

Volume Analysis: In this week’s volume analysis, the NASDAQ Composite Index ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode with average daily volume lower than the prior week. In the last two weeks the NASDAQ had one (1) Accumulation day and one (1)Distribution day. (Accumulation days are counted when the index closes up on higher volume than the prior day while Distribution days occur when the index closes down on volume higher than the prior market day.) Last week also, the NASDAQ ended in neither Accumulation nor Distribution mode on lower average daily volume.

Momentum: The CCI(20) daily is now in a Woodie’s Down trend, but now has 5 days above zero for a possible change in trend back to Up, Monday 2/26. At +44.46, up from +10.75 last week, it continues within the +/-50 range for a ZLR entry signal with either Short or Long possible Monday.
In Woodie’s CCI trading system, six consecutive bars above or below zero are required for a change of trend. The Weekly CCI(20) of the NASDAQ Composite Index began a Woodie’s up trend ninety-five weeks ago, while the Daily CCI(20) began a Woodie’s down trend two weeks ago.
A Friday 2/16 close, the CCI(20) weekly presented a ZLR Long entry signal for Monday 2/19 open. This week the CCI(20) weekly rose to 106.21 from 72.83 last week. We will continue following this trade simulation in next week’s commentary.
Industry Rotation the last two weeks: All of the top five industries are  positive and all of the bottom five are also positive. Summary: S&P Retail and some tech on top; REITs, Gold & Silver, and some tech on the bottom. Bullish: Comp Tech and Semis PHLX continue in the to five. Disk Drives and S&P Retail have entered the top five. Gold & Silver continues in the bottom five. Bearish: REITs has left the top five. REITs and Networkers have entered the bottom five. Oil Services and Oil have left the bottom five. Brokers, Networkers, and KBW Bank have left the top five.
Focus this week: From www.DavidStockmansContraCorner.comThe Albatross Of Debt: The Stock Market’s $67 Trillion Nightmare, Part 1” by David Stockman. The following are some key points.

  • it just so happens that the US treasury this very week will be selling $258 billion of government debt.

    That’s right. Uncle Sam’s scheduled debt emission this week will nearly equal his cumulative borrowing during the nation’s first 188 years and its first 37 presidents!

  • our purpose in this two-part series is to explain how it came to be not priced-in, and why that anomalous state of affairs is coming hard upon its sell-by date.
  • the massive growth of central bank credit unleashed by the Camp David folly of 1971 has finally reached its limit—even by the lights of our overtly Keynesian central bankers. So they are now embarking upon an epochal balance sheet reversal that will drastically alter the fundamental dynamics of the financial system, and expose the vast falsification of financial asset values that are actually “priced-in” to today’s Wall Street house of cards.
  • the 82X explosion of central bank credit gave rise to the freakish chart below.
  • Do we think that $4.2 trillion of extra central bank credit has changed everything?

    Yes, we do—as we will amplify in Part 2.


–Donald Pirl www.s2pmarketsignal.com

S2P Market Signal Commentary may be freely forwarded and otherwise distributed providing content is unchanged and authorship acknowledged.

2017 Sand2Pirls, Inc. All rights reserved. [Terms of Service ]

Leave a Reply